Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
245 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION FIRING UP TODAY A LITTLE EARLIER WITH
LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPS. ALSO SEEING MORE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY
ACTIVITY WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLIES. TRUE INLAND
SEABREEZE PENETRATION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT
OUTFLOWS WILL ADVANCE WELL INLAND. GPS-IPW SHOWING ATMOSPHERE
RATHER SOUPY...RANGING FROM NEAR 2 INCHES AT BPT TO 1.7 INCHES AT
LFT...SO WITH SLOW THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT CAN EXPECT ISOLATED
AREAS TO RECEIVE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS.

SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS CONTINUING TO SHOW AREA UNDER WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BETWEEN EAST COAST TROF AND CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER NORTH
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. LATEST GFS RUN WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
WITH OVERALL PATTERN LAST FEW DAYS SUGGESTING AT LEAST ONE MORE
DAY OF GOOD RAIN CHANCES BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PULLED IN
FROM TEXAS LOW.

GOOD RAIN CHANCES RETURN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK-
WEEK AS TEXAS LOW IS PICKED UP BY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WITH
COMBINED PHASED FEATURE PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...A SLOW MOVING SEABREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK NORTHWARD RESULTING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT...WILL RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS TO
40 MPH.

IN STRONG THUNDERSTORM AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...ABUNDANT CUMULUS FRACTUS WILL
RESULT IN CLOUD HEIGHT LESS THAN 500 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.
SMALL TO PENNY SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS WILL COVER THE REST OF THE AREA WITH CLOUD BASES
AROUND 2500-3500 FEET.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET WITH CLOUD
BASES RISING TO 4000 TO 6000 FEET.

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
LIGHT PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN NOTED AT THE KAEX...KARA...LCH TAF SITES THIS
MORNINGS AND WILL GO WITH THIS FORECAST AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. BPT
REPORTED VISIBILITIES AROUND 2 MILES THIS MORNING AND LIKELY WILL
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH NEW RAINS THAT FALL THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED CONVECTION IS AGAIN LIKELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

06

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NEW WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  87  72  89 /  20  50  30  20
KBPT  73  87  75  88 /  20  50  30  30
KAEX  70  87  69  91 /  30  50  30  30
KLFT  73  88  72  91 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

MARCOTTE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
530 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-151030-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
530 AM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL
ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY TO REQUEST THE ASSISTANCE OF PUBLIC SAFETY
OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS IN SEVERE WEATHER DETECTION AND
WARNING THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
218 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             GROVES                  29.95N 93.92W
06/14/2007  M0.75 INCH       JEFFERSON          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY GROVES PD.

&&

MOGGED