Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
424 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

...TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 AM FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.SHORT TERM...

TORNADO WATCH ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR SOUTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES
CONTINUES THIS MORNING. LARGE MCS WITH A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE OVER
THE HOUSTON CWA CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD AT A FAIRLY RAPID PACE.
SHOULD MCS MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT SPEED IT WOULD ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES AROUND 10Z...FASTER THAN MODELS HAVE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.
HOWEVER...BOTH GFS AND NAM SUGGEST MCS WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD
MOTION AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA AND BECOMES MORE PARALLEL WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH PWATS FORECASTED TO REACH
INTO THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND VERY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT
SUGGESTS A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HPC GUIDANCE AND
MODEL QPF INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHWESTERN HALF OF CWA. WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY FAIRLY HIGH WILL FOREGO FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.

SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO A THREAT TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING
AND INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY FROM 500-1500 J/KG. A
STRONG CAP IS ALSO IN PLACE THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD ERODE AS MCS
PROGRESSES EASTWARD. MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH 0-3KM SRH RANGING FROM
100-300 M2/S2. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA OUTLINED IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

HAVE POPS DROPPING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS SYSTEM
PUSHES EASTWARD. NAM SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AS MCS SHOULD ROB WHAT IS LEFT OF THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...

DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WITH FOCUS ON STORM
SYSTEM TODAY. WEAK TROUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PROGGED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO HAVE
MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
LOOK MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

NOT A GOOD WEATHER DAY AT THE TAF SITES TO SAY THE LEAST. GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED...WITH
TS ARRIVING AT KBPT BETWEEN 10-11Z AND REST OF AREA LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS LIKELY WITH ANY TSTORMS
THAT AFFECT TERMINALS TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...

VERY GUSTY WINDS NOTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
BUOY 42035 GUSTING TO 37 KNOTS EARLIER. MODELS INDICATE GUSTY
WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BEGIN SUBSIDING BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. HAVE EXTENDED SCA INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TO ACCOUNT.

TIDES CURRENTLY RUNNING 0.5 TO 1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BUT LOW TIDE AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING
SHOULD ALLEVIATE ANY COASTAL FLOODING THREAT. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON REDUCING THREAT FOR ANY TIDAL
OVERWASH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  78  63  81  56 /  80  30   0   0
KBPT  77  63  82  54 / 100  20   0   0
KAEX  77  58  80  52 /  80  30   0   0
KLFT  80  65  80  56 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...AND TYLER.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AND
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20
     NM.

&&

SHAMBURGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
447 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-261000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
447 AM CDT WED APR 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS WITH THIS LINE...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.

WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM CAMERON TO MARKSVILLE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND OTHER TYPICALLY FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RAINFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...WITH WARM AND DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BECOME NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

SHAMBURGER