Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
333 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE 40S IN ITS WAKE. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LINED UP RIGHT ON THE FRONT WITH OTHER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY ABOUT 80 TO 100 MILES AND
THIS APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SO WILL
START OUT WITH LIKELY POPS EAST OF AN AEX TO LCH LINE WITH CHANCE
POPS TO THE WEST OF THAT LINE. POPS DROP OFF APPRECIABLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS FRONT MAKES RAPID PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL OFF FROM EARLY HIGHS THIS MORNING
EAST OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER WEST OF THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE SOME
REBOUND. NEXT CONCERN IS THE OVERRUNNING EVENT THAT IS FORECAST
OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
THE JET AXIS AND DISTURBANCES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF AND THIS
HAS RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST RAIN AREA LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DID NOT SHIFT IT QUITE AS FAR TO
THE SOUTH AS THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME...BUT WE DID SHIFT THE BEST
POPS AND QPF ABOUT 50 TO 100 MILES SOUTH OF WHERE WE HAD IT
YESTERDAY. ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND
AS WELL.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS OVERRUNNING EVENT CONTINUES...BUT AGAIN
HAS BEEN SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
WATCH WILL BE THE INITIAL FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. NOW APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT NOW. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WORKS INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING A LITTLE COOLER THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND AGAIN WILL LIKELY SEE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO
FAR IN THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME. BUT AGAIN WILL
WAIT TO LOWER TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH BETTER FRONTAL
TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARA AND LFT. VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK THIS AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.MARINE...STIFF SOUTH WIND THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  41  58  43 /  60  10  10  40
KBPT  62  41  58  44 /  50  10  10  30
KAEX  58  37  56  39 /  70  10  10  30
KLFT  64  42  58  43 /  70  10  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION GMZ470-472-475.

&&

BRAZZELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-290945-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
342 AM CST FRI DEC 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A STORM OR TWO MAY BECOME
STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THIS FRONT MAY BRING THE COLDEST AIR THAT WE
HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON...OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.