Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
547 AM CST THU DEC 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROF CURRENTLY HEADING THROUGH CENTRAL
TEXAS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT
AHEAD OF IT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS. PRETTY MUCH GARDEN
VARIETY CONVECTION OVER OUR NECK OF THE WOODS THUS FAR...BUT AS
GREATER LIFT AND INSTABILITY SPREAD EAST...AN INCREASE INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT. LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY...AS WAS PROGGED BY THE GFS YESTERDAY.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADOES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZFP...ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
DRIER AND THEN COOLER AIR EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BY
TONIGHT. A WET GROUND...CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COULD LEAD TO SOME
RADIATION FOG TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INSERTED
PATCHY FOG INTO THE GRIDS/ZFP.

WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE UNDERNEATH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE WARM ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE GONE AOA THE WARMEST
GUIDANCE.

NEXT BONE FIDE COLD FRONT STILL PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY...AND ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING/MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY DIFFERENCES...FELT CONFIDENT IN INCREASING POPS A
LITTLE FOR SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT...BUT THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS IS STILL FRAUGHT WITH
UNCERTAINTY...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. HAVE
STUCK WITH THE ECMWF FOR THE MOST PART...SINCE IT HAS REMAINED
MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE GFS...BUT BE AWARE THAT THE FORECAST
BEYOND SUNDAY COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT KBPT-KLCH-KAEX EARLY THIS
MORNING...SHIFTING TO KLFT AND KARA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...WIND GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE HAZARDS WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TODAY INTO THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL HEADLINE SCEC FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RESUMING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  75  49  76  58 /  90  10  10  20
KBPT  76  51  77  58 /  80  10  10  20
KAEX  72  47  75  53 /  80  10  10  20
KLFT  74  51  75  56 /  90  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SCEC ALL MARINE ZONES TODAY.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...13
AVIATION...19

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
344 PM CST WED DEC 19 2007

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-202145-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
344 PM CST WED DEC 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY.
TOWARDS DAYBREAK...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING FROM TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
SYSTEM ON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

A THIRD COLD FRONT IS FORECAST LATE MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MIDDAY.

ERICKSON