Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
340 PM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED BERMUDA HIGH
REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER DIGGING A
LITTLE DEEPER AND LOOKING AT MODEL INSTABILITY AND CAPE FIELDS
REVEALED A BOUNDARY ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-49/HWY 90 CORRIDOR FROM
ALEXANDRIA TO MORGAN CITY...WITH MORE STABLE AIR TO THE EAST AND
GREATER INSTABILITY TO THE WEST. AND MUCH TO MY SURPRISE THIS
APPEARS TO BE COMING TRUE AS REGIONAL 88DS SHOW THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSING ERN TX. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY...PRETTY MUCH
NIL COVERAGE SO FAR.

NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/FORECASTS IN THE
SHORT TERM. ONGOING ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE ERN ZONES AS CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE
AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE BEGINNING TO ADD UP. FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED RW/TRW AS MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS
THE REGION AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS REMAIN SEASONAL. BOUNDARY OVER THE
ERN ZONES IS PROGGED TO WASH OUT TONIGHT SO COVERAGE TOMORROW
SHOULD DECREASE FROM WHAT WERE SEEING TODAY.

PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND WHILE A WAVE PASSES TO
OUR SOUTH OVER THE GULF. ATTM IT APPEARS THE WAVE STAYS FAR ENOUGH
AWAY TO KEEP FROM HAVING A LARGE INFLUENCE ON OUR WX FOR THE
WEEKEND SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT 40 PERCENT EACH DAY.

ALTHOUGH WITH DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH...LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON
BRINGING A CDFNT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. GFS WAS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS FEATURE WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 80S AT MOST FOR THURSDAY WHICH SEEMED A
LITTLE OVERDONE SO HELD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ALSO TIMED HIGHEST POPS TO
COINCIDE WITH THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE I-49
CORRIDOR EXTENDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS HIGHWAY 90 FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTERNOON. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CONVECTION. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN.

TRARES

&&

.MARINE...MAINLY LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. DID BUMP
UP WINDS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR EXPECTED NOCTURNAL LO-LVL
JETTING TO OCCUR AS IT HAS PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  91  74  91 /  30  40  20  40
KBPT  75  92  76  91 /  30  40  20  40
KAEX  72  92  72  92 /  30  40  20  40
KLFT  74  91  73  91 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
413 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-071100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
413 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
TYPICAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ARE FORECAST. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DECENT MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE FOR A CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

RUA