Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
113 AM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.UPDATE...

HUMBERTO HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND WILL BE
UPGRADING PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY. HIGHEST WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 74
MPH AT BUOY 42035 EAST OF GALVESTON...39 MPH AT SEA RIM STATE
PARK...AND 28 MPH AT SOUTHEAST TEXAS REGIONAL AIRPORT. SPC WILL BE
ISSUING TORNADO WATCH SOON FOR ALL ZONES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA UNTIL 10 AM AS WELL.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007/

UPDATE...AFTER LATEST COORDINATION WITH TPC, CONSIDERING A
STRENGHENING TROPICAL STORM HUMERTO TAKING A ROUTE MORE TO THE
RIGHT, WILL NEED TO ISSUE AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO
INCLUDE JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AS WELL
AS CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. LANDFALL
IS NOW EXPECTED NEAR SEA RIM STATE PARK IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007/

UPDATE...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
EXTRAPOLATES WITH A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF 6 KNOTS PER LATEST HGX (HOUSTON)
RADAR IMAGERY. HUMBERTO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND GAVE
AN IMPRESSIVELY TIGHT IMAGE ON LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY. WE
ARE CLOSELY MONITORING CELLS ON THE EASTERNMOST BAND FOR ROTATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FOR WATERSPOUTS ABOUT 45 NM OFF CAMERON. IF
THE STORM TAKES A JOG TO THE EAST, THE CLOSEST LANDFALL WOULD
STILL BE SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 2 AM ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.

SHORT TERM...WIND AND GUST GRIDS BEING ADJUSTED HOURLY WITH A
SLIGHT JOG TO THE RIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS FOR TEMPORAL GAPS BETWEEN
PRECIP BANDS BUT A STILL HEFTY 80 PERCENT FOR ALL EXCEPT S CEN LA
WHERE 70 PERCENT LOOKS APPROPRIATE...AND CLOSER TO GUIDANCE. THREE
HOUR RAINFALL ACCUMULTIONS HAVE BEEN GREATEST IN LOWER ACADIANA
WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE COMMON. LCH 88-D HAS BEEN
RECONFIGURED FOR TROPICAL OPERATIONS IN ORDER TO GAIN THE MOST
ACCURATE PRECIP ESTIMATES. A FEW LOCATIONS IN ACADIANA HAVE
ACHIEVED BETWEEN 7 AND 8 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR INTO THE STORM.

LONG TERM...THE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES HUMBERTO INLAND TO NE LA BY
FRI MORNING. MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE BEYOND THAT POINT. THE GFS HINTS
AT A CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD BRING THE CURRENT RAINY PERIOD TO AN END.

AVIATION...MVFR CIG/VIS WITH OUR TERMINALS ON THE WET SIDE OF
HUMBERTO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND VEER
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MARINE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS FAR EAST AS INTRACOASTAL CITY UNTIL LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE WARNINGS COULD BE DROPPED WHEN THE SOUTHERN
FEEDER BAND WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. THE BUOY 30 NM OFF HIGH ISLAND
HAS GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS...INCREASING.

HYDROLOGY...WILL MAKE COSMETIC CHANGE TO FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE
THE NAMING OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO. LENGTH OF TIME CONTINGENT
ON THE SOUTHERN FEEDER AND COULD BE SHORTENED FROM THE CURRENT
VALID TIME WHICH TAKES IT TO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENT THINKING
IS MAX RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007/

DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO HAS STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS AT THIS TIME RANGE FROM THREE TO FOUR INCHES ALONG COASTAL
JEFFERSON COUNTY AND CAMERON PARISH TO FIVE INCHES IN EASTERN
VERMILION PARISH AND 1/2 INCH OVER NORTHERN VERNON PARISH AND
NORTHERN NEWTON...JASPER...AND TYLER COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. THE
STRONGEST STORMS ARE MOVING ONSHORE FROM VERMILION BAY NORTHWARD
IN AVOYELLES PARISH AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PARISHES IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES WITH
WATER SPOUTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS CENTER OF HUMBERTO MOVES
NORTHWARD TONIGHT.

ALSO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL
TOTALS AROUND THREE TO FIVE INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EVENT 8 TO 10 INCHES WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING A BIT
MORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  74  86  73  87 /  60  50  30  30
KBPT  75  86  74  87 /  60  50  30  30
KAEX  72  86  71  88 /  60  50  30  30
KLFT  74  86  73  87 /  60  50  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST.
     MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...AND VERNON.

     INLAND HURRICANE WARNING THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CAMERON.

     HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CAMERON.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CAMERON...AND VERMILION.

     INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CAMERON.

     INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CALCASIEU.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...AND TYLER.

     HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

     INLAND HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

     INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

     INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ORANGE.

GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20
     NM...AND WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

     TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH
     ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
     TO 60 NM.

&&

SHAMBURGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
515 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-132215-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
515 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WILL MOVE ONSHORE BETWEEN GALVESTON AND
HIGH ISLAND. FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CHECK THE HURRICANE LOCAL
STATEMENT FROM THE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SEE ABOVE STATEMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS MAYBE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.