Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
901 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
HEATING WILL MOST SURELY RESULT IN RAINS FOR THE AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES FOR TODAY. APPEARS
SIGINIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS AT LEAST FOR TODAY WILL REMAIN WEST
OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA DUE TO STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVEREGENCE
AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. A NORTH SOUTH FLOW THERE WILL PROBABLY
ALSO RESULT IN CELL TRAINING. CURRENT THINKING FOR OUR AREA IS
THAT WE WILL SEE HEAVIEST RAINS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT EXPECT
ONLY 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 TO 3.5
INCHES. SEE LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OR SHEAR ZONE REMAINS TO THE WEST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AS STATED IN
EARLY MORNING FORECAST...A TROPICAL LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE AREA UNDER A RAIN REGIME. SOME DRYING OUT EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEK BUT SEABREEZE ACTIVITY WILL STILL PLAY A ROLE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD RAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AS GULF MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTH TEXAS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST.
WITH THE RAINS WILL COME LOWERING CEILINGS...PRIMARILY MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CURRENTLY AROUND 3 FEET OR SO AND WOULD EXPECT
TODAY TO REMAIN AT THIS LEVEL AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND LONG FETCH SWELLS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  84  75  88  75 /  80  40  30  30
KBPT  83  75  87  76 /  80  50  30  30
KAEX  86  73  85  73 /  70  50  50  30
KLFT  85  73  88  75 /  70  30  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

06

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN LATER THIS WEEK. THE FIRST INSTALLMENT
MOVES IN LATER TODAY AS A STEADY SOUTHEAST FETCH SETS UP IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND CARRIES IN GULF MOISTURE. THIS WILL RAMP UP OUR RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL
COMPLETE THE SATURATED MOISTURE COLUMN ALREADY BEGUN OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS AS PACIFIC MOISTURE WAFTED IN AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.

IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE ON TAP DUE TO EXTENDED TIME OF
THIS EASTERLY REGIME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO
6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY SINCE
PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND A HEFTY 2
INCHES OVER THIS PERIOD. A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEK.

SHORT TERM...CHOSE TO GO LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON THE POPS AS
RIDGING APPEARS TO BE HANING IN AT MID LEVELS AND DUE TO THE
MODELS WHICH HAVE DEMONSTRATED A MARKED WET BIAS SINCE THE MIDDLE
OF THE MONTH. THAT SAID, WILL STILL GO LIKELY TO NUMEROUS ON THE
SHOWER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER LOWER SE
TX AND SW LA WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL AID IN LIFT.

WHILE STILL UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE ON POPS TNITE DUE TO RIDGING
ABOVE THE SURFACE, STILL GOING FOR SCATTERED TO LIKELY COVERAGE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER INTERIOR AREAS WHERE SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY IS AVAILABLE.

LONG TERM...NO REAL END IN SIGHT TO THE HIGHER THAN CLIMO
RAINFALL DUE TO THE GOOD EASTERLY FLOW OUT OF THE CARRIBBEAN AND
IMBEDDED EASTERLY WAVES. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS DISPLACE FURTHER
NORTH THAN USUAL, PRODUCING THAT STEADY TROPICAL EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE GULF STATES.

AVIATION...MVFR CIG/VIS IN TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD SWELLS
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH. OVERNIGHT WINDS MAY
APPROACH SCEC VALUES DUE TO LATENT HEAT RELEASE AS WATER TEMPS ARE
WELL ABOVE 80 DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  84  75  88  75 /  80  40  30  30
KBPT  83  75  87  76 /  80  50  30  30
KAEX  86  73  85  73 /  70  50  50  30
KLFT  85  73  88  75 /  70  30  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-261045-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
532 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A DISPLACED BERMUDA RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR A TROPICAL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS WHERE SEVERAL HEAVY SHOWERS
PASS OVER. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY COULD RANGE FROM THREE TO SIX INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

JS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
543 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-252100-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
543 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

...AN EXTENDED WET PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...

A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH WILL
ALLOW FOR A CONTINUOUS FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE CARIBBEAN.
THIS WILL ADD TO MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE FROM THE PACIFIC TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH HEAVY EMBEDDED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL THREE TO SIX INCHES FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS RECEIVING MULTIPLE HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLETS AS WELL AS NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR UPDATES ON THE DEVELOPING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

JS