Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
402 PM CST MON FEB 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...AREA OF TSTMS HAS MADE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THUS FAR ARE BEHAVING. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AS CONFLUENT ZONE
STILL WEST OF HOUSTON...AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOIST AXIS...SHIFTS
EASTWARD...IN ADDITION TO LFE REGION OF H3 JET NOSING INTO THE
AREA. INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT MEAGER...THOUGH THIS IS PROGGED
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...AS ARE KINEMATIC FIELDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY...THOUGH WILL CARRY A SMALL POP OVER EASTERN AREAS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

CDFNT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH MUCH COOLER
AND DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION. ATTM...HAVE REMOVED
MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE FORECAST BEYOND EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MEAN TROF DOMINATING THE CONUS AND NO SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN ANTICIPATED. NEVERTHELESS...ACTIVE JET WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...RUNNING THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES
RIGHT OVERHEAD. THINKING THAT MEAGER MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE
ANYTHING MEASURABLE...THOUGH SOME LIGHT PCPN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MAV/MET GUIDANCE WERE REASONABLY CLOSE IN THE
NEAR TERM TO GENERATE A COMPROMISE...AND IN THE EXTENDED...HPC
NUMBERS LOOKED OK.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ACTIVITY
IS ALREADY ON KBPTS DOORSTEP...AND WILL BE SPREADING INTO KLCH
AND KAEX BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM...AND KLFT BETWEEN 9 AND 11 PM. RAIN
WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...STARTING AT KBPT BY MIDNIGHT...AND
ENDING AT KLFT BY DAYBREAK. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE ON THE
STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE.

&&

.MARINE...MODEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OUT TO 20 NM. SCEC IN
PLACE FOR TONIGHT COULD BE UPGRADED TO SCA FOR TOMORROW AS SFC
FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...RESULTING IN MODEST
TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  55  68  38  50 / 100  10  10  10
KBPT  54  66  37  49 / 100  10  10  10
KAEX  54  63  35  47 / 100  10  10  10
KLFT  57  69  39  49 / 100  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST.
     MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...AND VERNON.

TX...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...AND TYLER.

GM...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 11 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
408 AM CST MON FEB 12 2007

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-131015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
408 AM CST MON FEB 12 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GM...CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS BECOMING NUMEROUS AROUND MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING SEVERE WITH THE THREAT FROM LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOS POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL END TOMORROW
MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AROUND THE NOON HOUR.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER DOWN INTO THE REGION WITH SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEARING AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING. MORNING LOWS ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND THE LAKES REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER 30S
ALONG THE COAST.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED.

K. KUYPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
746 PM CST MON FEB 12 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HAIL             SOUR LAKE               30.14N 94.40W
02/12/2007  E0.75 INCH       HARDIN             TX   PUBLIC

            OCCURRED AT THE HARDIN JEFFERSON HIGH SCHOOL.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E SOUR LAKE           30.14N 94.37W
02/12/2007                   HARDIN             TX   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWNED IN PINEWOOD.

&&

BARRY