Severe Thunderstorm Warning 500, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
353 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CUT OFF LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE KS/NEB BORDER THRU MONDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN AND COOL TEMPS ACROSS THE
AREA.

H2O IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE LOW CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHILE
SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN LOW.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER IN TUNE FOR TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER EMBEDDED WAVES STRENGTH AND TIMING STILL BEING
IRONED OUT.

TODAY AS UPPER LOW EMERGES ONTO THE WESTERN PLAINS...SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD TO CONTINUE...WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER EASTERN CO EARLY THIS MORNING TO LIFT OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL
BRING SW NEB THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. MODEL QPF
IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE FOR THE DAY...WHICH AFTER SEEING WHAT HAS
BEEN REPORTED SO FAR AND PW/S AROUND 1 INCH...SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.
ALSO THUNDER IS EXPECTED AT TIMES...HOWEVER NOT WIDESPREAD.

MEANWHILE COOLER TEMPS FROM THE NW TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE REGION
ON N TO NE WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPS STEADY...IF NOT
FALLING A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT HAS LITTLE CHANGE WITH RAIN CONTINUING...HOWEVER THUNDER
MOVES MAINLY TO THE EAST AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER SOUTH.
LOWS DROP INTO THE 40S AS BREAKS TO RAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BY MONDAY THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH TOWARDS IA WITH A SLOW END
TO RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES FROM THE WEST TO EAST. HIGHS STILL ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH ONLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EXPECTED.

TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM ACTIVE WET WEATHER...HOWEVER
MODELS GOING WITH YET ANOTHER SYSTEM TO CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT KLBF
AND KVTN TODAY...AS A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLBF AND
KVTN TODAY AND CEILINGS MAY RISE TO MVFR HEIGHTS IN THE VICINITY OF
SHOWERS. WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT KLBF AND
KVTN...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST
FROM 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

MASEK/CLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
421 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-151030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
421 AM CDT SUN OCT 14 2007 /321 AM MDT SUN OCT 14 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
AREA. SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL TO ONEILL. NO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE FROM IMPERIAL
TO AINSWORTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

CLB