Severe Thunderstorm Warning 494, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 060344
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1044 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007

NEC015-089-060400-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0494.000000T0000Z-071006T0400Z/
HOLT NE-BOYD NE-
1044 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN BOYD AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL HOLT COUNTIES...

AT 1041 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 18 MILES NORTHEAST OF MONOWI...OR ABOUT 24 MILES EAST OF
PICKSTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

LAT...LON 4278 9831 4277 9852 4284 9895 4301 9859
      4301 9851 4295 9845 4293 9838 4288 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 234DEG 55KT 4303 9802

$$

SPRINGER

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 060401
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1101 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007

NEC015-089-060411-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0494.000000T0000Z-071006T0400Z/
HOLT NE-BOYD NE-
1101 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN BOYD AND EXTREME NORTH
CENTRAL HOLT COUNTIES EXPIRED AT 1100 PM CDT...

LAT...LON 4278 9831 4277 9852 4284 9895 4301 9859
      4301 9851 4295 9845 4293 9838 4288 9830
TIME...MOT...LOC 0344Z 234DEG 55KT 4302 9801

$$

SPRINGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
339 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WIND ON SATURDAY AND TIMING OF
FROPA SATURDAY. IN THE NEAR TERM HAVE LOOKED AT WV AND LIGHTNING
OVERLAY WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS AREA INTO
THE PANHANDLE. WAVE HAS LOST ITS PUNCH ONCE IT CROSSED THE DIVIDE.
MAY BE ENOUGH INTERACTION WITH BOUNDARY IN THE PANHANDLE BUT HAVE
LEFT DRY FOR NOW. MODELS NOT DIGGING WEST COAST SYSTEM AS DEEP
TODAY WITH UPPER JET DRIVING AROUND THE SYSTEM AND LIMITING ITS
SOUTHERN TRACK. YESTERDAYS MODELS HAD SYSTEM DRIVING INTO 4
CORNERS SAT 12Z NOW INTO THE SALT LAKE VICINITY BUT ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. WITH SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH WARD DRIFT SURFACE GRADIENT
SLOW TO TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE ADVISORY ON SATURDAY
WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO BE NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. PWS CONTINUE
ABOVE NORMAL WITH STRONG THETAE ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS
ON THE NOSE OF 50+KT LLJ OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE DELAYED
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWEST BUT INTRODUCED ISO POPS
ACROSS FORECAST AREA ALONG THE 850MB FRONT AND THE LLJ EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DELAYED TILL SATURDAY
EVENING AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC QPF WITH SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE INCREASED
TEMPERATURES ON THE DAY SATURDAY. SETUP FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS
LINEAR SYSTEM MOVES INTO DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT INDUCES
LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE LARGE HAIL. AS H5
CLOSED LOW MOVES NORTHEAST LIFTING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY A
STRONG WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SYSTEM WITH A SECONDARY AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE SYSTEM PULLS NORTHEAST. SOME UPPER 30S SUNDAY
MORNING OVER NORTHWEST PANHANDLE BUT SYSTEM NOT AS COLD.
PRECIPITATION ENDING MONDAY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS SYSTEM DRIVING
INTO WEST COAST SHARPENS H5 RIDGE INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO
THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS INTO EASTERN WYOMING WILL INCREASE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
LEAVING A SOMEWHAT MIX ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...HOWEVER IF WINDS DO
DECREASE ENOUGH...A STRONG SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LLVL JET WILL LEAD TO
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AS SFC WINDS WOULD BE
LIGHT AND BACKED TO THE EAST. THESE SAME WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THEY MIX THE INVERSION OUT...WIND GUSTS OVER
35 MPH COULD BE POSSIBLE AND MAY BE HAZARD TO LIGHT AIRCRAFT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

POWER/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-061200-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
338 PM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007 /238 PM MDT FRI OCT 5 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM TO TRACK
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS STORM SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE HARSH AND RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE
SATURDAY...SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED SATURDAY FOR SOUTH
WINDS OVER 30 MPH BUT A BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING.
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH ALL OR A
PORTION OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. NORTH WINDS OVER 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF(ALL LOWERCASE)

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
947 PM CDT FRI OCT 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             9 NNW ONEILL            42.58N 98.71W
10/05/2007  E1.00 INCH       HOLT               NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL FROM 3/4 TO 1 INCH FROM 930-940 PM CDT

&&

CHENDERS