Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 454, NWS North Platte, NE

September 28, 2007Custer County, Nebraska

NWS North Platte, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 28, 2007, 6:01 PM CDT for Custer County, Nebraska. It was in force for 44 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Sep 28, 2007, 6:01 PM CDT (23:01 UTC)
Expired: Sep 28, 2007, 6:45 PM CDT
In force: 44 min
Issued by: NWS North Platte, NE
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Custer County, NE

The radar

The North Platte radar (KLNX), 95 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Sep 28, 6:50 PM CDT	HAIL 1	12 Nw Callaway, NE

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 28, 5:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 45 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2279 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 322 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 517 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KLBF 282301
SVRLBF
NEC041-282345-
/O.NEW.KLBF.SV.W.0454.070928T2301Z-070928T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
601 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ARNOLD...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT.

* AT 600 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 17
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF CALLAWAY...OR ABOUT 21 MILES SOUTH OF ARNOLD...
  AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES EAST OF ARNOLD BY 635 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4105 9998 4105 10023 4107 10023 4154 10022
      4143 9975
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 193DEG 31KT 4113 10016

$$

MASEK

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 282318
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
617 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

NEC029-085-282327-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0453.000000T0000Z-070928T2315Z/
HAYES CHASE NE-
617 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CHASE AND 
NORTHWESTERN HAYES COUNTY EXPIRES AT 615 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4055 10134 4062 10135 4063 10134 4070 10133
      4069 10130 4070 10129 4070 10115 4054 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 215DEG 30KT 4067 10127

$$

KECK

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 282331
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
631 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

NEC041-282345-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0454.000000T0000Z-070928T2345Z/
CUSTER NE-
631 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN CUSTER COUNTY...

AT 630 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR NOW INDICATES 
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE 
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE 
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HIGHWAY 40 MILE MARKER 10 TO 
HIGHWAY 40 MILE MARKER 20...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES 
SOUTH OF ARNOLD TO 18 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARNOLD...MOVING NORTH AT 20 
MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHWAY 40 MILE MARKER 20 BY 640 PM CDT...
  CALLAWAY AND 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ARNOLD BY 645 PM CDT...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4105 9998 4105 10023 4107 10023 4154 10022
      4143 9975
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 196DEG 17KT 4128 10015 4121 10000

$$

MASEK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS North Platte, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 28, 3:07 PM CDT, 2 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 28, 3:07 PM CDT, 2 hours 54 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR HEADLINES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
307 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY...AND TEMPERATURES...

.SYNOPSIS...LEE SIDE TROFFING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN STRONG SRLY WINDS ACROSS
MOST OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS
STREAMED NORTH TDY AND DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE 30S THIS
MORNING...TO THE UPPR 509S AND LWR 60S THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
AND HIGH CLOUDINESS HIGHLIGHTED THE WX PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
UPSTREAM CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS SRN AND SERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON...IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE PACIFIC TROF.

.DISCUSSION...

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN FORECASTING CHALLENGES IN
THE NEAR PERIODS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

A VIGOROUS PACIFIC TROF WILL CARVE ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BRINGING A SHOT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...ABUNDANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED PER THE LATEST NAM
FCST. H7 COMPUTED CAPES ARE AT OR ABOVE 2000J/KG ACROSS THE SWRN
CWA...WITH H85 LIS OF -5 TO -7 THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD FIRE
FIRST TO THE SW AS THE CURRENT WAVE OVER SRN COLORADO MOVES EAST
INTO ERN CO/WRN KS. NWRLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY CARRY THIS NWD
OVERNIGHT. AM EXPECTING CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN ITS SELF AS IT MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE 50+ KT LLJET. IN ADDITION TO
CONVECTION...A MILD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS MIXING WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...UPPR PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER...ALLOWING SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED TROF TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
FROM ERN MT...TO ERN COLORADO. WELL EAST OF THIS FEATURE...WINDS
WILL HOWL...WITH H85 WINDS AT OR ABOVE 45KTS EAST OF AN ONL TO LBF
LINE. GIVEN THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY IN THE NORTH AND EXPECTED
CONVECTION TONIGHT...WILL ADVISE ONCOMING SHIFT OF THE SITUATION
AND LET THE NIGHT CREW DEFINE WHERE THE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SATURDAY. BY AFTERNOON...INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR A DECENT
SEVERE WX EPISODE. SURFACE TROF WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE
WITH SB CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG EAST OF THIS FEATURE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. LEADING SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE
DURING PEAK HEATING ADDING INSTABILITY ALOFT AS WELL.

HAVE RAMPED UP POPS SOME FOR SATURDAY AND REFINED POPS ON SUNDAY
BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW. MODELS STILL ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH THE TRACK OF THE MAIN UPPR LVL SYSTEM. NAM HAS THIS
FEATURE TRACKING OVER THE DAKOTAS...WHILE THE GFS TRACKS THIS FROM
SWRN NEBRASKA TO NERN NEBRASKA. EVEN WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO TRACKS...BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH LIMITED CHANCES IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MERIDIONAL FLOW
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ZONAL FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE THE
MAIN FACTOR IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEK EVEN WITH THE
ABUNDANCE OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN MID LVL FLOW. FOR THE
MOST PART...LEFT THE EXTENDED DRY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POPS IN
THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
QUICK TO SURGE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE MONDAY...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SFC TROF AND UPPR AIR SYSTEM. NEXT FROPA WILL ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND AT THIS TIME APPEARS DRY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FOCUSED EAST OF LBF. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOUGH AS A
STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NEXT
WEAK AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC AND MEX GUIDANCE.

&&

AVIATION...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 4 TO 8 KFT THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION FORMS TO
THE SOUTH AND LIFTS NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT (6
PM MDT)...ZONES NEZ094-005>010-024>027.

&&

CLB/TLK

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 28, 3:21 PM CDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-291000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
321 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007 /221 PM MDT FRI SEP 28 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
NORTH CENTRAL. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS WILL
SPREAD WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR NORTH THAT WILL HELP FUEL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE
SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY.
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WHILE STRONG WINDS MAY
REQUIRE A WIND ADVISORY AGAIN SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

KECK

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 28, 4:57 PM CDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
457 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     HAIL             8 NNE ELSIE             40.95N 101.33W
09/28/2007  E0.88 INCH       PERKINS            NE   PUBLIC

&&

JSWEET

Local storm report, Sep 28, 5:11 PM CDT, 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
511 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     HAIL             9 NNW WALLACE           40.96N 101.23W
09/28/2007  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

&&

JSWEET

Local storm report, Sep 28, 5:16 PM CDT, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
516 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             2 N WAUNETA             40.45N 101.37W
09/28/2007  E0.88 INCH       CHASE              NE   PUBLIC

&&

JSWEET

Local storm report, Sep 28, 5:23 PM CDT, 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
523 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     HAIL             13 WNW HAYES CENTER     40.58N 101.25W
09/28/2007  E1.75 INCH       HAYES              NE   PUBLIC

&&

JSWEET

Local storm report, Sep 28, 5:40 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
540 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             7 S WALLACE             40.74N 101.16W
09/28/2007  E1.75 INCH       LINCOLN            NE   PUBLIC

&&

JSWEET

The office that day

Everything else NWS North Platte, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 28, 4:00 AM CDT	Wind Advisory	LBF	Blaine, Boyd, Brown, Cherry, Holt, Hooker and 4 more	15 hr
Sep 28, 4:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Keith, Perkins	30 min
Sep 28, 4:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Lincoln	17 min
Sep 28, 5:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Chase, Hayes	42 min
Sep 28, 5:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Lincoln	33 min
Sep 28, 5:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Arthur, Keith	34 min
Sep 28, 5:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Chase, Hayes	27 min
Sep 28, 5:52 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	LBF	Lincoln	53 min
Sep 28, 6:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Lincoln	38 min
Sep 28, 6:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Lincoln	41 min
Sep 28, 6:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Custer	47 min
Sep 28, 6:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LBF	Lincoln	24 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.