Severe Thunderstorm Warning 328, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 222206
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
506 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2007

NEC161-222245-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0328.000000T0000Z-070722T2245Z/
SHERIDAN NE-
406 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM MDT
FOR CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY...

AT 400 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES WEST OF HIGHWAY 27
MILE MARKER 200...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RUSHVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHWAY 250 MILE MARKER 30 AND 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF SMITH LAKE   
  STATE WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT AREA BY 445 PM MDT...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ADD TO THE DANGER WITH RAINFALL RATES NEAR 
2 INCHES PER HOUR.

LAT...LON 4268 10207 4273 10223 4272 10249 4249 10254
      4233 10242 4234 10220 4243 10207

$$

CDC

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 222219
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
519 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2007

NEC161-222229-
/O.CAN.KLBF.SV.W.0328.000000T0000Z-070722T2245Z/
SHERIDAN NE-
419 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THIS STORM HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND NO LONGER POSES A SEVERE 
WEATHER THREAT. WINDS GUSTED TO NEAR 50 MPH SOUTH OF RUSHVILLE.

LAT...LON 4268 10207 4273 10223 4272 10249 4249 10254
      4233 10242 4234 10220 4243 10207

$$

CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
256 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2007

...FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES...

.SYNOPSIS...LARGE AMPLIFICATION IN THE H5 PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS
THE CONUS...WITH A SHARP TROF AND ASSOCIATED LOW ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...AND A 5950 HIGH OVER WRN KS AND ERN COLORADO. H5 TEMPS
REMAIN WARM WITH A CORRIDOR OF -4C H5 TEMPS EXTENDING FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE...TO SWRN NEBRASKA. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 19Z INDICATING A
SURFACE TROF EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...INTO THE WRN NEBR
PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM CDT...RANGED FROM 90 AT BBW TO 99
AT VTN.

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN FCSTING CHALLENGES IN
THE NEAR TERM ARE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE
ANCHORED ACROSS THE NWRN ZONES HAS TOUCHED OF AN ISOLATED SHRA THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY HAD DIMINISHED BY LATE MORNING...HOWEVER
MID LVL ACCUS FIELD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING A WEAK CAP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SANDHILLS AND
THE NERN PANHANDLE. AFTER TONIGHT...FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. H5
SHORTWAVE...LOCATED OVER NWRN MN ATTM...WILL ROTATE AROUND THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPR LVL HIGH TONIGHT. THIS ENERGY WILL EMERGE
ACROSS WRN IA AND ERN NEBRASKA MONDAY MORNING. WITH A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE AND SFC HEATING...LOOK FOR EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
ERN NEBRASKA. NERLY FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CARRY THIS ACTIVITY
SWD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND HAVE INTRODUCED POPS IN THE ERN
AND SERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. STRONG SHEAR AND DECENT HELICITY
NOTED...SO SEVERE TSRAS POSSIBLE.

DRY CONDS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS A REINFORCING SHOT OF WARM AIR
ALOFT WILL CAP THE MID LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE
PLACE FOR TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WITH NEARLY A 10 DEG DIFFERENCE IN
HIGHS PER THE MAV...MET AND FWC GUIDANCE. THE MET HAS 86 FOR NORTH
PLATTE AND ASSUMES NO MIXING PER FCST SOUNDINGS. MAV GUIDANCE HAS 95
AND FWC 92 FOR LBF. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GO WITH THE LOWER
90S SOUTH AND UPPR 90S NORTH.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAIN FORECASTING CONCERN IN
THE EXTENDED LIES WITH FRONTAL TIMING AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK. CLOSED UPPR LOW OFF THE WRN COAST OF
BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL COME ASHORE ON MONDAY...LIFTING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN
DOWN THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...USHERING IN A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY. TIMING OF THE FROPA NEARLY 24 HOURS SOONER THAN
YESTERDAYS ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS...AND HAVE OPTED FOR THE
SLIGHTLY SLOWER ECMWF RUN...WHICH FAVORS THE FROPA LATE ON THURSDAY.
ON THIS NOTION...SPED UP MENTION OF POPS TO THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE NORTH AND THURSDAY EVENING IN ALL ZONES. WILL KEEP IN MENTION OF
POPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE UPPR FLOW TRANSITIONS TO NWRLY.
BY SATURDAY...THE CANADIAN TROF WILL PHASE WITH THE EAST COAST
TROF...FORCING THE INTERMOUNTAIN UPPR HIGH SOUTHWEST TO WRN UT AND
NV...PLACING THE CWA IN A MORE NORTHERLY PATTERN ALOFT. WITH THE
FRONT SOUTH...AND THETA E RIDGE LOCKED OVER THE FRONT RANGE...PRECIP
CHANCES LOOK SLIM AND WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FCST ATTM.

&&

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z MONDAY FOR KVTN AND KLBF.
ISOLD TS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF NEB AND EASTERN CO AFFECTING TWB264 AND
TWB274. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS TO 40KT MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
STORMS. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE TOMORROW AS A SFC BOUNDARY WORKS
SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD RETREAT IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

CLB/JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
323 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-230830-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
323 PM CDT SUN JUL 22 2007 /223 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
AND WESTERN SANDHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...SO STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. STORM MOTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT
UNUSUAL...WITH MOVEMENT TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED. AT
THIS TIME...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY EAST OF A LINE
FROM LYNCH TO PAXTON...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ONEILL...BROKEN BOW
AND NORTH PLATTE.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

JMC