Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 022254
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
553 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

NEC075-022330-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-070402T2330Z/
GRANT NE-
453 PM MDT MON APR 2 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM MDT
FOR GRANT COUNTY...

AT 451 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HYANNIS TO SWEDE LAKE...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 32 MILES WEST OF MULLEN TO 21 MILES
NORTHWEST OF ARTHUR...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HIGHWAY 61 MILE MARKER 150 BY 500 PM MDT...
  HIGHWAY 61 MILE MARKER 140 AND WHITMAN BY 510 PM MDT...
  PRATT LAKE AND SPRING VALLEY LAKE BY 520 PM MDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4205 10200 4177 10204 4176 10147 4206 10146

$$

BUTTLER

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 022326
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
625 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

NEC075-022335-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0028.000000T0000Z-070402T2330Z/
GRANT NE-
525 PM MDT MON APR 2 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GRANT COUNTY EXPIRES AT 530 PM
MDT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WARNING...WILL 
MOVE EAST OF THE COUNTY BY 530 PM MDT. 

IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED...PLEASE CONTACT LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AND HAVE THEM PASS THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE. 

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4205 10200 4177 10204 4176 10147 4206 10146

$$

BUTTLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
256 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA OF TSRA DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY ATTM AT THE NOSE OF
UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED SFC CONVERGENT ZONE. THOUGH SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT...ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ONCE DEVELOPMENT IS DEEP ENOUGH. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN WY AND THE PANHANDLE OF NEB AT THE EXIT REGION OF UPPER
JET AND DEVELOPING MID LEVEL FGEN. THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY PROGGED TO PULL EAST AHEAD OF UPPER FEATURE SO
TSRA SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NRN ZONES INTO THE EVENING. WITH DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS HIGH...ACTUAL AMOUNT OF PRECIP LIMITED...HOWEVER
THIS SHOULD ENHANCE GUSTY NATURE OF WINDS AS PRECIP EVAPORATES. SOME
HAIL A POSSIBILITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

&&
.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...AFTER
PASSAGE OF UPPER SYSTEM WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...AND
WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING MIXED INTO THE OVERNIGHT...WILL KEEP WINDY
WORDING IN GRIDS. THIS SHOULD KEEP LOW UP THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...THOUGH WILL ASSUME VALLEY AREAS SHOULD DROP OFF PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. MIN GRIDS SHOW NEAR GUIDANCE IN THE N AND SLIGHTLY BELOW IN
THE S.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT INTO MID WEEK AS THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH GETS CARVED OUT. SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AS
NWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS ALOFT. TIMING OF CAA SURGES WILL BE DIFFICULT
AND HENCE EVOLUTION OF SUBSEQUENT MID LEVEL FGEN DEVELOPMENTS. BEST
GUESS ON NEXT ONE SEEMS TO BE THU AS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM APPEAR ON
TRACK TO DEVELOP WEAK MID LEVEL FGEN BAND ACROSS THE CWA AND LIGHT
PRECIP. WRN HALF OF CWA SHOULD BE IN FAVORABLE REGION FOR
UPSLOPE/ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL AND WILL CONTINUE THE SLT CHANCES
FOR SN/RA.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF MODEL INDICATING A MORE
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS FRIDAY THAN THE GFS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM
EASTERN BRITISH COLUMBIA SOUTH ALONG THE WEST U.S. COAST. ECMWF DOES
HOWEVER BRING COLDER AIR SOUTH FROM CANADA DAYS 5 AND 6 ALONG WITH
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAN THE GFS (1030MB VS. 1018 MB). AM
FAVORING THE COOLER ECMWF SOLUTION AND WILL MAKE A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT DOWN IN HIGHS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NEAR
HPC GUIDANCE NUMBERS WHICH IS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TIMING DISTURBANCE IN NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT. 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PREFER TO KEEP EXTENDED DRY ATTM DUE TO
TIMING ISSUES AND ANY PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE SLIGHT CHANCE WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AVBL.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH BASED TSRA WILL IMPACT AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF A KLBF-KBFF
LINE. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
CELLS. CIGS GENERALLY MVFR/VFR WITH VSBYS P6SM OUTSIDE OF THE
STRONGER -TSRA. STRATUS WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEB
EARLY IN THE MORNING KVTN AND POINTS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IF
THIS DEVELOPS IT WILL LAST THROUGH 18Z TUES. OTHERWISE WEST OF
KLBF-KBFF...VFR.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

KAR/JWS/JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
333 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-031200-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
333 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007 /233 PM MDT MON APR 2 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK THROUGH WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

JMC