Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 300141
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
841 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

NEC111-300151-
/O.CAN.KLBF.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-070330T0200Z/
LINCOLN NE-
841 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD MOVED OUT OF LINCOLN COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4116 10123 4115 10080 4137 10081 4136 10123

$$

SPRINGER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
241 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

...FORECAST CENTERS AROUND SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING TONIGHT.

WATER VAPOR AND TIMING TOOLS SUGGEST AN AREA OF DIVERGENCE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT.
PARTIAL CLEARING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS SWRN NEB AS THIS FEATURE
TRANSLATES NEWD. THE SFC LOW IS TUCKED WEST NEAR KIML AND IS FCST TO
UNDERGO OCCLUSION THIS EVENING AS IT LIFTS NEWD THROUGH NEB AND INTO
ERN SD FRIDAY MORNING. THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT...YET TO FORM OR
WEAKLY ORGANIZED ATTM WILL LIFT NORTH WITH THE SFC LOW. SHEAR
PARAMETERS REMAIN HIGH. PWS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 300
PERCENT NORMAL. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM12 CART A BUNDLE OF MOISTURE NWD
OUT OF KS AND INTO NEB TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND IF SFC
TEMPS CAN REACH THE LOWER 70S STORMS COULD EASILY FIRE.

ATTM NOMINAL WARM AIR ADVECTION PER TEMPS IN THE MID 60S SUGGESTS
ONLY MODEST CAPE WILL BE AVAILIBLE. THE FCST IS FOR MORE STORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT BUT WITH MINI-SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS. PWS ARE FCST TO RISE TO NEAR 300 PERCENT SUPPORTING
HP CHARACTERISTICS TO THE STORMS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE
IN PLACE. FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOW.

WEST OF HIGHWAY 83...THE NEB PANHANDLE...TROWAL SIGNITURE IS IN
PLACE WITH WESTWARD 800MB THETA E ADVECTION. THIS ADVECTION IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE UNTIL 06Z TONIGHT. SFC WINDS AND VWP WINDS ARE
MARGINAL FOR WINTER STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ERN PANHANDLE BUT
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. FOR NOW WENT
FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT. THE NAM12 AND GFS IS POORLY
HANDLING THE DEFORMATION ZONE...TOO FAST LIFTING IT NORTH WITH THE H7
LOW. EXPECT THE SNOW SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT. SO 2 INCHES OR 1/2 INCH
ACCUMULATION PER HOUR TONIGHT IS ALL. NO ADZY IS NEEDED ATTM.

SKIES CLEAR PARTIALLY FRIDAY. THEN THE QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE GFS IS PREFERRED OVER THE NAM AND
ECMWF. THIS PRODUCES A CHC OF RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL USE THE
GFS SKIES AND POPS. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DOING PRETTY WELL WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO FAR. THE NAM12 IS SIMILAR BUT NOT AS ROBUST WITH THE
EXPECTED PCPN SHIELD WHICH WILL SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE BRINGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH NEB MONDAY-TUESDAY. THIS PORTION OF THE FCST RELIED
HEAVILY ON HPC NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF
ROUTE 098 WEST OF VTN...ROUTE 264 NORTHWEST OF OGA...AND ROUTE 274
HEADING SOUTHWEST OF AKO. DRIER AIR IS NOW BEING DRAWN NORTHWEST
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH CEILINGS LIFTING ATTM. THIS EVENING
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FROM 00Z AND CLIP
AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM LBF TO VTN WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REDUCE VISIBLITIES AND CEILINGS AT TIMES TO IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
06Z. FURTHER WEST SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT FLIGHTS MOVING
THROUGH THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST TO THE FOOTHILLS IN THE
DENVER AREA. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING FRIDAY THROUGH 15Z THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZONES 006>010-
026>029 UNTIL 06Z.

&&

CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-301815-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
329 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2007 /229 PM MDT THU MAR 29 2007/

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEBARSKA UNTIL 1 AM CDT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A MIX BAG OF WEATHER IS ON TAP TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP IN AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83...WHILE SNOW
WILL FALL IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WHERE RAINFALL EXCEEDS 1
INCH PER HOUR. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH 1 AM CDT...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL EAST OF A LINE FROM SPRINGVIEW IN KEYA PAHA COUNTY TO
ERICSON IN WHEELER COUNTY.

THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THEN OUT WEST... AS THE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION MAY OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE BEFORE THE SNOW
ENDS TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE (ALL LOWERCASE)

19