Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 112203
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
503 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

NEC029-112230-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0219.000000T0000Z-070611T2230Z/
CHASE NE-
403 PM MDT MON JUN 11 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MDT
FOR WESTERN CHASE COUNTY...

AT 400 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 18 MILES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 6 MILE MARKER 10...OR ABOUT 24
MILES SOUTHWEST OF IMPERIAL...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 6 MILE MARKER 10 BY 430 PM MDT...

LAT...LON 4035 10204 4035 10167 4069 10162 4070 10204

$$

KAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
254 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...
AHEAD OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF BAJA...LEAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN COLORADO WILL MOVE ACROSS NWRN
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AOA 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS WRN FA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHER WILL BE
30-35 KTS AND SEVERE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN SB CAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG. ANY TRAINING OR PERSISTENT CELLS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL. AN MCS IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST FROM THE
PNHDLE ACROSS WRN SANDHILLS WHERE LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN PLACED.
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE IN AREAS WHICH ARE THE DRIEST
AND HAVE THE HIGHEST FFG VALUES AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...IT WILL NOT END AS APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL CAUSE SFC
LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN COLORADO.

PHASING OF NRN STREAM TROUGH ADVANCING FROM PAC NW TO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS TUESDAY AND SRN STREAM CLOSED LOW ADVANCING TO WRN NEW MEXICO
WILL DRAWN DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES...THIS WILL BE
150-200 PERCENT OF NORMAL OR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT WEDNESDAY AFTN. THIS MAY END UP BEING ANOTHER
HIGH IMPACT FLOOD EVENT AS RECENT HEAVY RAINS PLACE SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA... PORTIONS OF CUSTER...KEYA PAHA...ROCK...BOYD AND HOLT
COUNTY IN AREAS OF HIGHEST RISK.

UPPER LOW WILL STALL ACROSS NEBR/KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...KEEPING CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT SHOULD END HOWEVER
BY 00Z THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WRN AND NCTRL NEBR WILL BE
BENEATH UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. ANY RAIN CHANCES PRIOR TO SUNDAY ARE QUITE LOW AND
WILL NOT MENTION ATTM. ANOTHER ORGANIZED CHANCE ARRIVES
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DRY AND COOLER MONDAY BEHIND FRONT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.
&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
IMPACT ALL TWEB ROUTES ACROSS THE WEST. OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING STRATUS WILL THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH CEILING
DROPPING TO MVFR OR LESS THROUGH 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

KAR/TLK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-120645-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
338 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007 /238 PM MDT MON JUN 11 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND MOVE EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. THE WEST WILL REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR AREAS WEST OF
A LINE FROM NENZEL IN CHERRY COUNTY...MULLEN IN HOOKER
COUNTY...TRYON IN MCPHERSON COUNTY...HERSHEY IN LINCOLN COUNTY AND
HAYES CENTER IN HAYES COUNTY. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TUESDAY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE LIKELY ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
MAY BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS AND
ISOLATED TOTALS COULD EXCEED 5 INCHES AS THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVES
EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY
83 TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

19