Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 240616
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1214 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

NEC041-240645-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070224T0645Z/
CUSTER NE-
1214 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CST
FOR CUSTER COUNTY...

AT 1213 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE 
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF BROKEN BOW...MOVING NORTH AT 
35 MPH.

ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...LOCATED 10 MILES NORTH OF ARNOLD WILL 
MOVE NORTH AT 35 MPH AND IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE 
OF QUARTERS. 

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES EAST OF VICTORIA SPRINGS STATE RECREATION AREA BY 1225 AM
  CST...
  GATES BY 1230 AM CST...

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND 
HAVE THEM RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH 
PLATTE. 

LAT...LON 4108 10015 4110 9923 4170 9926 4168 10021

$$

BUTTLER

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 240638
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1236 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

NEC041-240646-
/O.EXP.KLBF.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070224T0645Z/
CUSTER NE-
1236 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CUSTER COUNTY EXPIRES AT 1245
AM CST...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN 
PORTIONS OF CUSTER COUNTY THROUGH 130 AM CST. AT THIS TIME...NO 
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. BRIEF HEAVY 
RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HAIL UP TO A HALF AN INCH IN DIAMETER 
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY EXIT NORTHERN 
CUSTER COUNTY.

IF SEVERE WEATHER WAS OBSERVED...CONTACT LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND 
HAVE THEM PASS THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH 
PLATTE. 

LAT...LON 4108 10015 4110 9923 4170 9926 4168 10021

$$

BUTTLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
219 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
ALL INGREDIENTS FOR THE MAJOR STORM CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ALL IMPORTANT PACIFIC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PRODUCE
THE OCCLUDED SFC LOW IS TRACKING THRU ERN AZ. THE GULF IS OPENING
WIDE ACROSS TEXAS. VERY DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO SURGE OUT OF THE
SIERRA MADRE IN OLD MEXICO AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC FRONT. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY IS CIRCULATING MOIST MARITIME AIR
WESTWARD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. THE BEGINNINGS OF A CANADIAN COLD
FRONT IS DROPPING THRU MT. LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CNTL WY IS DEEPENING
AND TRACK E-SEWD THRU THE HIGH PLAINS. THUS WE HAVE 5 AIR MASSES
COLLIDING ACROSS THE CNTL PLAINS...PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL...GULF
MOISTURE...MARITIME ATLANTIC MOISTURE FOR HEAVY PCPN AND STRONG
DYNAMICS FOR SUPPORT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NAM AND GFS HAVE COME INTO SUCH
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT MIGHT BE FOOLISH TO SECOND GUESS THE SOLNS.
THEREFORE A MODEL BLEND WAS USED FOR QPF. THE NAM WAS USED TO
IDENTIFY THE LIKELY RAIN SNOW LINE AND A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS
USED FOR WIND SPEED AND TEMPS. 6 HR QPF WAS LIMITED TO 0.60 INCHES
BUT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD POTENTIALLY YIELD HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SNOW TOTAL GRIDS PRODUCED 4 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW USING A 10 TO 1
RATIO. GUIDANCE WINDS SHOW SUSTAINED SPEEDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 45
MPH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING FOR ABOUT 12 HRS. ALL
MODELS SHOW AN OCCLUDED SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH KS AT 15 TO 18 MPH.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH HISTORICAL BLIZZARDS OF MODERATE INTENSITY.
THESE LOCAL STUDIES INDICATE 20 MPH STORM MOTION PRODUCES A WEAK
SHORT LIVED BLIZZARD...10 MPH PRODUCES A STRONG LONG LIVED STORM AND
5 MPH IS CATACLYSMIC. LOCAL STUDIES SUPPORT THE WIND SPEEDS USED IN
THIS FCST WHICH ARE NOT EVEN NEAR THE STRONGEST EVER RECORDED.

THE 850MB COLD FRONT OVER MT IS PROGGED TO DROP BE LOCATED NEAR KIML-
KTIF-KANW BY 12Z. PER SWODY2 THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG OR
JUST AHEAD OF THE 850 MB COLD FRONT AND THUNDER SNOW IS FCST.

THE CURRENT BLIZZARD WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING
WITH THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE AND HOLT...GARFIELD AND WHEELER COUNTIES
WILL BE ADDED TO THIS WARNING. SHERIDAN...GARDEN AND BOYD COUNTIES
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. LATER FCSTS MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADED GARDEN COUNTY AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

THE NAM AND GFS STRONGLY SUGGEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO NEAR 2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN
AND SOUTHWEST NEB...ROUGHLY KIML-KOGA-KMHN. THIS INTENSE SNOWFALL
BAND IS FCST TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY MORNING TO NEAR KLBF-KTIF AND
THEN LIFT NORTH TOWARD KBBW-KANW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB
FRONT WILL UNDERCUT MOISTURE ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE ATM. HEAVY SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NERN ZONES IN THE AFTN WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 MPH. NAM12 PCPN
TYPE ICONS SUGGEST FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE HEAVY
SNOW BAND AS THE 850MB FRONT UNDERCUTS WARM MOIST AIR ALONG IN THE
THUNDERSTORM ZONE ALONG AND EAST OF A KIML-KLBF-KONL LINE. IT IS IN
THIS REGION WHERE THE RISK OF POWER OUTAGES WILL BE VERY HIGH. THE
COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN...CHANGING TO HEAVY WET SNOW WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO 35 MPH OR STRONGER COULD EASILY STRAIN THE POWER GRID
TO THE BREAK POINT IN RURAL AREAS.

THE STORM EXITS AREA ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE BIG STORM THIS WEEKEND
MODELS SOLNS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT. THE FCST CONTINUES A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW MIDWEEK BUT THIS STORM SYSTEM APPEARS
TO BE TRENDING NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR FIRST FEW HOURS OF FCST BEFORE
STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGIN TO LOWER CEILINGS AND VISBY
DUE TO STRATUS AND PCPN. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
OUT OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH VISIBILITIES
GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 5 MI RANGE AND CEILINGS AROUND 2KFT. AS
STRONGER LIFTS ARRIVE ALOFT VIA THE TROWAL WRAPPING BACK INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND COLD AIR INFILTRATES ACROSS THE
SANDHILLS...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL COMMENCE WITH AREAS OF HEAVY
SNOW AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
PRODUCING VISIBILITIES TO A 1/2 MI OR LESS AND OBSCURED CEILINGS
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...BLIZZARD WARNING MOST OF WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SHERIDAN...GARDEN AND BOYD COUNTIES MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

CDC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
400 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-251200-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
400 PM CST FRI FEB 23 2007 /300 PM MST FRI FEB 23 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES OVERNIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AND DEEPEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING...ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE
TO FLOW INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND MOVE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD
INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS EAST AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HAYES CENTER...TO ARNOLD...TO SARGENT. LARGE
HAIL IS THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. NORTH OF THIS LINE...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE ON SATURDAY...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SEEP INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS AREAS MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 83 THROUGH SUNRISE. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
INCREASE TOWARD MORNING AND MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 35 MPH. BLIZZARD
AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES
ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO SNOW...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST AS
HIGH AS 50 MPH...PRODUCING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SNOW AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. ROAD CLOSURES AND POWER OUTAGES
WILL BE REAL POSSIBILITIES. BY SUNDAY MORNING...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 26. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.

AFTER SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
IMPACT THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES. AT THIS
TIME...ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING ACROSS FRONTIER...EASTERN HAYES...SOUTHEASTERN
LINCOLN AND SOUTHERN CUSTER COUNTIES.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/LBF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLB/13