Red Flag Warning 10, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS83 KLBF 152128
RFWLBF

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
328 PM CST THU NOV 15 2007

...CRITICAL FIRE DANGER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...

.RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TEEN TO LOWER 20
PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE
SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
MPH...WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO KEEP
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. A LACK OF RAINFALL
DURING THE LAST 30 DAYS...COMBINED WITH NATIVE GRASSES BEING
CURED...WILL MEAN ANY FIRE STARTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
EXHIBIT EXTREME BEHAVIOR.

NEZ204-206-210-219-160000-
/O.CON.KLBF.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-071116T0000Z/
EASTERN PANHANDLE/CRESCENT LAKE NWR-
SANDHILLS/VALENTINE NWR/NEBRASKA NATIONAL FOREST/
SAMUEL R MCKELVIE NATIONAL FOREST-FRENCHMAN BASIN-LOESS PLAINS-
328 PM CST THU NOV 15 2007 /228 PM MST THU NOV 15 2007/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
THIS AFTERNOON...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/
THIS AFTERNOON. 

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH
SUNSET...BEFORE QUICKLY RECOVERING. THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH...WILL
ALLOW FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
303 AM CST THU NOV 15 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LONG WAVE TROF SLIDING EWD PER WV IMAGERY AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES. DECENT HT RISES INDICATED ON EVE UA PLOTS. KLBF
SOUNDING VERY DRY...AND THAT IS TRANSLATING TO VERY LOW DEW POINTS
ACROSS WRN NEBR ATTM. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS DEVELOPING PER
IR PICS AND VERIFIED IN THE MODELS VIA 310KE MSTR TRANSPORT
VECTORS AND COND PRES DEF.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL DEAL WITH FIRE WX...SEE SEPARATE SECTION
BELOW. OTHERWISE APPEARS THAT NAM MSTR TRANS VECT ON THE 310KE SFC
SHOWS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF NERN
CWA...BUT WONT INHIBIT WARMING MUCH. MIXING WILL BE BEST FURTHER
W THOUGH HENCE THE WARMER TEMPS. FLAT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY...WHICH IS TYPICALLY A WARMER THAN AVE PATTERN. SFC
GRADIENT RELAXES SOME SO WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND HOPEFULLY
ALLEVIATE ADDITIONAL FIRE WX CONCERNS. FORCING REMAINS TO THE N OF
CWA AND DECENT MSTR RETURN NOT YET EVIDENT.

WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COMES IN SAT. SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG
MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH COOLING WILL BE EXPECTED. NAM LIMITS WWD
PROGRESSION OF FRONT DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND DOWNSLOPE MOMENTUM
INHIBITOR. DESPITE MODELS HAVING SIMILAR HIGH LEVEL JET
SOLUTIONS...GFS DEVELOPS MUCH STRONGER LEE TROF AND STRONGER WINDS
BY SAT NIGHT. WILL SIDE TWD A MORE TEMPERED SOLN FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM... (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SUNDAY TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE ABOVE AVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MODELS
SIMILAR ON BRINGING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH SOME TIME MONDAY...BUT
UPPER FEATURES DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY. GEM IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER
THAN OTHER MODELS AND GENERALLY DISREGARDED. ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN OP
GFS AND APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF A LACK OF PHASING BTWN THE SPLIT
STREAMS...WHILE THE GFS IS MORE IN PHASE WITH THE TWO STREAMS AND
THEREFORE MORE PROGRESSIVE. EACH SOLUTION WOULD YIELD SOME AMOUNT OF
IMPACT ACROSS THE C PLAINS IN OR NEAR THE HOLIDAY WEEK...WHICH MAKES
THE FCST TRICKY IN THE UPCOMING FEW DAYS. THE 00Z GEFS MEAN HT...AS
EXPECTED...WOULD YIELD A REASONABLE MEAN TROF POSITION THOUGH WOULD
LOSE MOST OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...EVEN THE MEAN MSL PROGS FROM THE
GEFS WOULD FAVOR AN UPSLOPE/LONGER TERM ISENTROPIC EVENT AS THE
ARTIC FRONT WASHES UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THIS FALL...THE ECMWF FOCUSES THE STRONGER ENERGY IN
THE SRN STREAM WHICH ALLOWS MORE OF A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY. THIS IN TURN LIMITS EWD
PROGRESSION AND A MORE AMPLIFIED SYSTEM BY THANKSGIVING. THIS
SOLUTION IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS HAS BEEN CLOSER TO ACCURATE THAN
GFS...SO WILL MONITOR THE NEWER RUNS OF EACH MODEL.

AS PER POLICY...DAYS 6 AND 7 UNCHAGED AT THIS POINT BUT THATS A GOOD
THING DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCT TO BKN CIRRUS
CLOUDINESS WILL PREVAIL FROM 18Z THORUGH 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY ATMOSPHERE...DRY FUELS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN
ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. RH LEVELS WILL DROP
TO NEAR 15 PERCENT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 83 BY MID
AFTERNOON...THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
BRING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED AND VALID TODAY FROM 18Z THROUGH 00Z. FIRE STARTS HAVE BEEN
MORE NUMEROUS THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH THE EXTENDED DRY AND WARM
PERIOD LEADING TO EXTENDED OUTDOOR RECREATION AND AGRICULTURAL
OPPORTUNITIES.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING FIRE ZONES 204
...210...219...206.
&&

JWS/KAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
543 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-152345-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
543 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007 /443 PM MST WED NOV 14 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THURSDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE INDEX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO NEAR 20 PERCENT ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH TO CREATE THESE CONDITIONS...MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OGALLALA TO NORTH PLATTE TO BROKEN BOW.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...INDICATIONS ARE THE FIRST MAJOR COLD AIR
OUTBREAK COULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY WITH COLD WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF THE WEEKEND. NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE
FINAL PREPARATIONS FOR THE WINTER DRIVING SEASON. ALTHOUGH
FORECAST SKILL IS GENERALLY LOW ONE WEEK IN ADVANCE INDICATIONS
ARE SUB FREEZING WEATHER AND SNOW COULD DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH A PORTION OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS IF YOU ARE PLANNING
TRAVEL DURING THIS UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

CDC