Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND COVERING EAST KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE REAL DRIVING FORCE IN THE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND ANOTHER DRIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST. IN
BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES...THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLEAR
SKIES ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HEAT UP TOWARD VALUES CLOSE TO
YESTERDAY/S HIGHS...EASILY EXCEEDING THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.
ACCORDINGLY... EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG...THOUGH
SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT WILL UPDATE TO FINE TUNE TEMP
AND SKY TRENDS...ALSO WILL CLEAN UP THE MORNING WORDING IN THE TEXT
ZONES. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

SURFACE FEATURES ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ARE BECOMING
LESS DISCERNIBLE WITH EACH PASSING DAY...AS ONLY WEAK TROUGHS EXIST
FROM CENTRAL IL DOWN THROUGH WV AS WELL AS SOUTHERN IL INTO WESTERN
TN. UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN IN IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER THIS
MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AREA STILL ONGOING IN WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT...HOWEVER MOST OF THE BETTER COMPLEXES THAT HAVE TRIED TO INVADE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST HAVE FALLEN APART. WILL MENTION A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY TO COVER ANY ISOLATED POP UPS.

A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AND DESPITE ONLY WEAK FORCING
AVAILABLE...SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED BY THIS
AFTERNOON...SO HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DESPITE THE LESS STEEP LAPSE RATES
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER
GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. STAYED ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE
CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LATEST 00Z OPERATIONAL RUN
IS ALSO ADDING TRAVERSING SURFACE WAVES INTO THE MIX...LEADING TO
SOME NICE SHOTS OF WHAT WOULD BE WELCOMED RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH TO BELIEVE THIS SOLUTION AS THE GFS REMAINS THE
SLOWEST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS AND THE SURFACE WAVES MAYBE JUST
BEING A BAD PRODUCT OF THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. EITHER WAY
HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED COMPARED TO
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING LATELY. AS A COMPROMISE...DID SLOW
THE HIGHER POPS DOWN A BIT IN THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY...AS 850 MB FRONT
WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEAR. A REFRESHING AIR MASS WILL RIDE IN ON HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MORE SEASONAL READINGS AND LOWER
HUMIDITIES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/...UPDATED

SCATTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. EVEN SO...THE COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH FOR A
PREVAILING OR TEMPO GROUP OF TSRA SO HAVE JUST GONE WITH VCTS FOR
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LATER THIS EVENING. ALLOWED FOR SOME
FOG AT THE VALLEY TAF SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THEN
CARRIED VCTS FOR MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY...
FROM MID MORNING ON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN/GREIF
LONG TERM....GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
408 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
408 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON. ONE OR TWO OF
THESE MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS WELL AS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY OCCURRENCES OF STRONG WINDS OR
HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

GEOGERIAN

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