Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...EXCEPT WITH THE
OCCURRENCE EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL EXPECT THE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO LAST
INTO THE EVENING.

DURING THE NIGHT...WHAT IS LEFT OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER IL
WILL DRIFT A BIT TO THE SE. AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SW FLOW
ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE A BIT FURTHER
SE...COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT. LAST NIGHT THE AREAS IN THIS
REGIME HAD EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF PRECIP TO OUR W AND NW. ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE IS NOT SHOWN BY THE MODELS TO BE QUITE AS HIGH
TONIGHT AS LAST NIGHT...THINK THAT THE SET UP STILL DESERVES A
SUBSTANTIAL POP...AND HAVE USED 50 PERCENT AS SUGGESTED BY MOST MOS.

SOME OF THE NOCTURNAL PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING. IF
HEATING IS SUFFICIENT...WE MAY ALSO SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A COMBINATION OF THE TWO PRECIP
POSSIBILITIES...HAVE USED A 30 PERCENT POP FOR THE PERIOD.

ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...AND ANY INFLUENCE WILL BE TO OUR N AND W. 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD US...WITH RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS
AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION...AND HAVE
DECIDED TO USE THE 20 PERCENT POPS OF THE MAVMOS.

THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRY OUT FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE E-W ORIENTED 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA. HAVE KEPT PRECIP
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...UPDATED

BACKED OFF ON POPS FOR WEDNESDAY TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AS MODEL RUNS
AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE COMING IN DRIER. MOISTURE IS PRESENT WITH SOME
DECENT ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SFC TRIGGERS ARE
LACKING...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS TENDING TO KEEP A MID LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MORE STABLE THAN NOT. BOTTOM
LINE IS THE RIDGING JUST LOOKS TOO STRONG TO ALLOW ANYTHING TO
DEVELOP.

FOR THE REMINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE 12Z GFS RUN WAS NOT
AS CONSISTENT AS IT HAS BEEN IN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MORNINGS
SOLUTION TRENDED ABOUT 12 HRS SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING
OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND STAYING THE COURSE WITH BOUNDARY
TIMING...SIMILAR OR THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. WITH THIS ONLY
BEING THE FIRST RUN WITH SUCH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GFS...
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON DELAYING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT UNTIL THIS
LATEST DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE CONCRETE.

STILL LOOKS TO BE A GOOD FETCH OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PW/S ARE ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES
AND PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES ARE DECENT AS WELL. SO WE CAN
PROBABLY EXPECT A LITTLE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS...AND BETTER
COVERAGE OF THOSE HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WITH THE MORE RECENT SYSTEMS.

FRONT SWEEPS COMPLETELY THROUGH AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...WITH THE PROMISE OF SOME COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT
WEATHER...AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

A THICK DECK OF CI WAS OVERHEAD AT TAF ISSUANCE. HOWEVER...CLOUDS
WERE NOT ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS FROM POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN AERIAL COVERAGE. ALSO
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH IN TN. TRIED
A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH FOR THE TAFS. GENERALLY KEPT THUNDERSTORMS
CONFINED MORE TO THE SOUTH EARLY ON AS THOSE SITES ARE CLOSER TO THE
MORE UNSTABLE AIR.

INCLUDED A PERSISTENT MVFR CONDITION FOR ALL SITES TONIGHT...MORE FOR
MIST OR LIGHT FOG THAT WILL DEVELOP THAN FOR ANY STRAY AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY PASS THROUGH. FOR THE MOST PART...TOMORROW
LOOKS TO BE A REPLAY OF TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
438 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-251100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
438 AM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GEOGERIAN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

KYZ084-242000-
MCCREARY-
320 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT NORTHERN MCCREARY COUNTY THROUGH
400 PM EDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 319 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
MARSHES SIDING...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR MARSHES SIDING AROUND 340 PM EDT...WIBORG
AROUND 350 PM EDT...BEULAH HEIGHTS AROUND 400 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF
AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

RAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

KYZ079-083-084-242045-
PULASKI-WAYNE-MCCREARY-
358 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL PULASKI AND EAST
CENTRAL WAYNE AND NORTH CENTRAL MCCREARY COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 358 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DELTA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR ALPINE AROUND 415 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

THE HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE CAREFULLY.

RAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

KYZ120-242045-
PIKE-
413 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT EAST CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM EDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 413 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BIGGS...MOVING
NORTH AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR PAW PAW AROUND 425 PM EDT...COLEMAN AROUND
435 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

SBH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
447 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

KYZ086-116-242115-
CLAY-KNOX-
447 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND EASTERN KNOX
COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 447 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HAMMOND...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR OGLE AROUND 455 PM EDT...BRIGHTSHADE AROUND
500 PM EDT...LIPPS AROUND 505 PM EDT...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE
INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

SBH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
450 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 SE SOMERSET           37.00N 84.51W
06/24/2007                   PULASKI            KY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN SOUTHEAST PORTION OF COUNTY

&&

BTERRIZZ