Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 051815
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
215 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

KYC011-173-051845-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-070605T1845Z/
BATH KY-MONTGOMERY KY-
215 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND BATH COUNTIES...

AT 212 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR NEAR MOUNT STERLING...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CROOKS...PRESTON...WALKERS CROSSING AND KENDALL SPRINGS BY 220 PM
  EDT...
  OLYMPIA BY 225 PM EDT...
  OLYMPIA SPRINGS AND SALT LICK BY 230 PM EDT...
  YOUNG SPRINGS BY 235 PM EDT...

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3823 8407 3806 8412 3792 8362 3816 8355

$$
TPJ

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 051843
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
239 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

KYC011-173-051849-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-070605T1845Z/
BATH KY-MONTGOMERY KY-
239 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND BATH
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 245 PM EDT...

A TREE WAS REPORTED BLOWN DOWN ON BUNKER HILL ROAD IN MONTGOMERY 
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3823 8407 3806 8412 3792 8362 3816 8355

$$

JOHNSTONE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1040 AM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR BUF SOUTHWEST TO JUST
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOWS UP WELL IN
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP...UP TO 12Z...AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHWEST INDIANA. AHEAD OF THIS...A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE PUSHING EAST
INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO. MEANWHILE...ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...SKIES ARE
PARTIALLY COVERED WITH CU...WITH SOME FAIRLY LOW CLOUD BASES AT 2K
FEET OR LESS...QUITE A CHANGE FROM JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE AREA ARE ON TRACK WITH THE FORECAST...BUT CAN ALWAYS USE
A LITTLE TWEAKING TOWARD CURRENT CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THAT SHORTWAVE AND ITS SFC COLD FRONT. THE
FORECAST HAS THIS IN HAND...BUT WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE
IS STILL ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME LIFTED
INDEX VALUES TO AROUND -2 THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL
AND THE CAPE MAY GET IN THE 500 TO 600 RANGE. ALL IN ALL...THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS PRETTY LOW...HOWEVER ONE OR TWO
MAY DEVELOP WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTIONS OR CELL MERGERS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE DIEING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE FORMING AND MAY BECOME DENSE IN
PATCHES...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED RIVER VALLEYS AND IN LOCATIONS THAT
RECEIVE THE MOST RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE WARM AND DRY. THE MODELS DID BACK OFF SOME OF THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND I TRENDED THE TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE TO REFLECT THE
MODEL TRENDS.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

THE 18Z AND 00Z MODELS RUNS REALLY BACKED OFF THE WARMING TREND. DID
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE LONG TERM TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS.
A FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. IT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN ON SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN. THEN ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. THE
ONE CONCERN I HAVE IS THAT THIS WAS SUCH A BIG SWING IN THE PREVIOUS
MODELS...THAT THE SWINGING IS NOT DONE YET. AS SUCH...MY CONFIDENCE
LEVEL IS LOW FOR THE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

SOME VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS IS QUICKLY BURNING OFF THIS MORNING. MAY
STILL BE A FEW SPOTS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL BE ALL VFR
BY 8:30 AM. AFTER 16Z TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY
MVFR IN THE SHOWERS...HOWEVER WILL DROP DOWN TO IFR IN THE VERY
HEAVIEST SHOWER CORES. AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CONVECTION WILL BE
DROPPING OFF JUST IN TIME FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THE PATCHY
FOG WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHES OF IFR
AS WELL...MOSTLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE THE
MOST RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJ/GREIF
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
120 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-062030-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
120 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN CROSS EAST KENTUCKY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
THAT ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS.

SOME PATCHES OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND AREAS THAT RECEIVE A LOT OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JJ/GREIF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
138 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

KYZ050-051-051830-
BATH-MONTGOMERY-
138 PM EDT TUE JUN 5 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT BATH AND NORTHERN MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...

AT 138 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF SIDEVIEW...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SIDEVIEW AROUND 145 PM EDT...GRASSY LICK
AROUND 150 PM EDT...JUDY AROUND 155 PM EDT...MOUNT STERLING AROUND
200 PM EDT...AND STOOPS AROUND 205 PM EDT.

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR
THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD.

GREIF