Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Jackson, KY

April 3, 2007Estill County, Jackson County, Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 3, 2007, 8:08 PM EDT for Estill County, Jackson County, Kentucky. It was in force for 52 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Apr 3, 2007, 8:08 PM EDT (00:08 UTC)
Expired: Apr 3, 2007, 9:00 PM EDT
In force: 52 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Estill County, KY, Jackson County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Apr 3, 8:15 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Irvine, KY	TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY AT DOUG HILL AND BLACKBURN RD. TREES DOWN WITHIN IRVINE CITY LIMITS.
Apr 3, 8:40 PM EDT	TSTM WND DMG	Irvine, KY	TREES DOWN AT DOUG HILL AND ON BLACKBURN ROAD. TRESS ALSO DOWN ON GENEVA AVE IN IRVINE.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 7 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 3, 6:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 280 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1678 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -17 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1714 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 200 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 261 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 10.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KJKL 040009
SVRJKL
KYC065-109-040100-
/O.NEW.KJKL.SV.W.0004.070404T0008Z-070404T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
808 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ESTILL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF IRVINE...
  JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MCKEE...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 806 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12
  MILES NORTHWEST OF MORRILL...OR NEAR BEREA...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NOLAND...BLACKBURN...KINGS STATION AND LOCUST BRANCH BY 830 PM
  EDT...
  STATION CAMP...JINKS...WITT AND WISEMANTOWN BY 835 PM EDT...       
  WAGERSVILLE...MCKEE...IRVINE AND ESTILCO BY 840 PM EDT...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3730 8411 3750 8421 3756 8418 3757 8410
      3764 8413 3766 8410 3783 8406 3783 8399
      3776 8393 3776 8384 3772 8378 3755 8391
      3747 8390 3733 8380 3731 8388 3727 8391

$$

GREIF

3 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 040028
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
828 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

KYC065-109-040100-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070404T0100Z/
ESTILL KY-JACKSON KY-
828 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR JACKSON AND ESTILL COUNTIES...

AT 824 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
KIMBRELL TO WINSTON TO 20 MILES WEST OF SHIRLEY...OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MOUNT STERLING TO 8 MILES EAST OF
RICHMOND TO 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LANCASTER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SAM...KIMBRELL AND HARGETT BY 835 PM EDT...
  WISEMAN CROSSING STATION BY 840 PM EDT...
  WINSTON AND SANDHILL BY 845 PM EDT...
  RICE STATION AND FAINVILLE BY 850 PM EDT...
  WEEDON AND KINGS STATION BY 855 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3730 8411 3750 8421 3756 8418 3757 8410
      3764 8413 3766 8410 3783 8406 3783 8399
      3776 8393 3776 8384 3772 8378 3755 8391
      3747 8390 3733 8380 3731 8388 3727 8391

$$

JJ

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 040050
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
850 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

KYC065-109-040100-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070404T0100Z/
ESTILL KY-JACKSON KY-
850 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR JACKSON AND ESTILL COUNTIES...

AT 846 PM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LOCUST
BRANCH TO PRYSE TO PATSEY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF IRVINE TO 7 MILES EAST OF IRVINE TO 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
STANTON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  JINKS...ALCORN AND 7 MILES NORTH OF BRAZIL BY 855 PM EDT...
  TEXOLA...WAGERSVILLE...SHADE AND ESTILCO BY 900 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3730 8411 3750 8421 3756 8418 3757 8410
      3764 8413 3766 8410 3783 8406 3783 8399
      3776 8393 3776 8384 3772 8378 3755 8391
      3747 8390 3733 8380 3731 8388 3727 8391

$$

JACOBSON

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 040059
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
858 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

KYC065-109-040108-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070404T0100Z/
ESTILL KY-JACKSON KY-
858 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JACKSON AND ESTILL COUNTIES 
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 900 PM EDT...

THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY. LIGHTNING AND 
THUNDER WILL CONTINUE TO 9:30 PM EDT.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3730 8411 3750 8421 3756 8418 3757 8410
      3764 8413 3766 8410 3783 8406 3783 8399
      3776 8393 3776 8384 3772 8378 3755 8391
      3747 8390 3733 8380 3731 8388 3727 8391

$$

JACOBSON

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 3, 7:35 PM EDT, 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 3, 7:35 PM EDT, 33 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
735 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INITIALED WELL. AT 5 PM...A LOW
WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A SQUALL LING EXTENDED
FROM NEAR MUNCIE INDIANA TO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA TO SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI. THIS IS A VERY SIGNIFICANT SQUALL LINE WITH LITERALLY
HUNDREDS OF LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING REPORTED. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EXCEPT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE 18 GMT NAM MODEL RUN CAME IN AND IS NOT QUITE AS
UNSTABLE AS THE 12 GMT RUN. THE 18 GMT RUN HAD A MID LEVEL CAP THAT
HAD DEVELOPED AND AS SUCH...THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS
THE 12 GMT RUN. I AM ALWAYS A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THE OFF TIME RUNS...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE SYSTEMS HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.

USING EXTRAPOLATION...THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY BETWEEN 9 TO 10 PM THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE BEFORE THIS TIME. IF THEY
DO...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL TO
DEVELOP DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILE AND FREEZING LEVEL.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 1 TO 2 AM
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE TO EAST OF PIKE COUNTY BY 8 AM THIS
MORNING. THE WEATHER BETWEEN THE SQUALL LINE AND THE FRONT WILL BE
MOSTLY SHOWERS...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THIS IS A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND
THERE WILL BE VERY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THERE WILL
BE SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE MOSTLY A BLEND OF THE ETA
AND GFS MOS.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO MOVE THE PATTERN TO BE MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NAM
KEEPS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND AS SUCH THERE WILL BE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREDOMINATING OVER THE AREA. ALL THE SHORT WAVES
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO WEST
VIRGINIA. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE EXTENDED GFS MOS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL...OF COURSE...BE THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN OF
SEVERE WEATHER RACING THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4
HOURS. FOLLOWING THAT...WILL BE DEALING WITH THE COLD POOL RAINS AND
MVFR TO VFR VIS AND CIGS. VRF CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM 10Z ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT NEAR SVR TO SVR WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY FROM THE NORTH... AT THE SITES WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STORMS. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FOLLOW THE INITIAL
SQUALL LINE BEFORE SWITCHING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS THEN SETTLE
DOWN BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...GREIF

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 3, 6:20 PM EDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
620 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-050130-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
620 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 115 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FROM 8 PM IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA THEN
PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING REACHING FAR EAST
KENTUCKY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH FROST A LIKELIHOOD. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF HARD
FREEZE EACH MORNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFICS OF THIS FORECAST...AS THE
EXTENT TO WHICH THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AT NIGHT DEPENDS ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A
FREEZE ON ONE OR PERHAPS ALL OF THESE MORNINGS IS RELATIVELY HIGH.
IN GENERAL...THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S ON FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSON KY WITH REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AR/GREIF

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 3, 8:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Menifee	36 min
Apr 3, 8:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Powell	28 min
Apr 3, 8:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Lee, Wolfe	46 min
Apr 3, 8:47 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Pulaski	43 min
Apr 3, 8:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Wayne	41 min
Apr 3, 8:50 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Laurel	40 min
Apr 3, 8:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Morgan	38 min
Apr 3, 8:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	McCreary, Pulaski	66 min
Apr 3, 8:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Jackson, Owsley, Rockcastle	48 min
Apr 3, 9:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Magoffin	56 min
Apr 3, 9:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Clay	51 min
Apr 3, 9:15 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Wayne	2 hr
Apr 3, 9:16 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Knox, Whitley	59 min
Apr 3, 9:23 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Laurel	34 min
Apr 3, 9:26 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Whitley	39 min
Apr 3, 9:30 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay	36 min
Apr 3, 9:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Leslie, Perry	56 min
Apr 3, 9:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bell	28 min
Apr 3, 9:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Clay, Knox, Leslie	38 min
Apr 3, 10:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Harlan	38 min
Apr 3, 10:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Letcher	54 min
Apr 4, 4:25 AM EDT	Freeze Warning	JKL	Bath, Bell, Breathitt, Clay, Elliott, Estill and 27 more	30 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.