Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 040021
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
821 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

KYC199-203-040100-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-070404T0100Z/
ROCKCASTLE KY-PULASKI KY-
821 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN PULASKI AND ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...

AT 815 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZE HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS
WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF BOONE
TO 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF MAGNUM TO 31 MILES WEST OF CAINS STORE...OR
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF RICHMOND TO 15 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LEBANON TO CAMPBELLSVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MAGNUM AND CAINS STORE BY 845 PM EDT...
  POINTER BY 850 PM EDT...
  STAB AND HOGUE BY 855 PM EDT...
  BOONE...SNIDER...ROCKFORD AND GUM SULPHUR BY 900 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY.

LAT...LON 3740 8523 3723 8517 3704 8494 3712 8454
      3723 8423 3731 8412 3786 8409

$$

JJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
735 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INITIALED WELL. AT 5 PM...A LOW
WAS LOCATED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A SQUALL LING EXTENDED
FROM NEAR MUNCIE INDIANA TO SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA TO SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI. THIS IS A VERY SIGNIFICANT SQUALL LINE WITH LITERALLY
HUNDREDS OF LIGHTNING STRIKES BEING REPORTED. ALL OF THE INGREDIENTS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EXCEPT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THE 18 GMT NAM MODEL RUN CAME IN AND IS NOT QUITE AS
UNSTABLE AS THE 12 GMT RUN. THE 18 GMT RUN HAD A MID LEVEL CAP THAT
HAD DEVELOPED AND AS SUCH...THE INSTABILITY IS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS
THE 12 GMT RUN. I AM ALWAYS A BIT SKEPTICAL OF THE OFF TIME RUNS...SO
WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE SYSTEMS HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT
MOVES INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY.

USING EXTRAPOLATION...THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY BETWEEN 9 TO 10 PM THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE BEFORE THIS TIME. IF THEY
DO...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL TO
DEVELOP DUE TO THE FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILE AND FREEZING LEVEL.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 1 TO 2 AM
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE TO EAST OF PIKE COUNTY BY 8 AM THIS
MORNING. THE WEATHER BETWEEN THE SQUALL LINE AND THE FRONT WILL BE
MOSTLY SHOWERS...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THIS IS A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND
THERE WILL BE VERY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THERE WILL
BE SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES TEMPERATURE BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS. THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE MOSTLY A BLEND OF THE ETA
AND GFS MOS.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE ECMWF IS
QUICKER TO MOVE THE PATTERN TO BE MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NAM
KEEPS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST AND AS SUCH THERE WILL BE DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREDOMINATING OVER THE AREA. ALL THE SHORT WAVES
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL PASS MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIMITED TO WEST
VIRGINIA. STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE EXTENDED GFS MOS FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/...UPDATED

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL...OF COURSE...BE THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN OF
SEVERE WEATHER RACING THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4
HOURS. FOLLOWING THAT...WILL BE DEALING WITH THE COLD POOL RAINS AND
MVFR TO VFR VIS AND CIGS. VRF CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM 10Z ON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT NEAR SVR TO SVR WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY FROM THE NORTH... AT THE SITES WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STORMS. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS FOLLOW THE INITIAL
SQUALL LINE BEFORE SWITCHING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WINDS THEN SETTLE
DOWN BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM....JJ
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
620 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-050130-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
620 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 115 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE FROM 8 PM IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA THEN
PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING REACHING FAR EAST
KENTUCKY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT EDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ON THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH FROST A LIKELIHOOD. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF HARD
FREEZE EACH MORNING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPECIFICS OF THIS FORECAST...AS THE
EXTENT TO WHICH THE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AT NIGHT DEPENDS ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY OF A
FREEZE ON ONE OR PERHAPS ALL OF THESE MORNINGS IS RELATIVELY HIGH.
IN GENERAL...THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL INTO THE 20S ON FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNINGS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSON KY WITH REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

AR/GREIF