Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Jackson, KY

November 14, 2007Clay County, Jackson County, Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Nov 14, 2007, 4:49 PM EST for Clay County, Jackson County, Kentucky. It was in force for 26 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Nov 14, 2007, 4:49 PM EST (21:49 UTC)
Expired: Nov 14, 2007, 5:15 PM EST
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Clay County, KY, Jackson County, KY

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Nov 14, 5:00 PM EST	HAIL 0.88	N Sacker Gap, KY	NICKEL AND PEA SIZE HAIL

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 240 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -15 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 504 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 160 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 154 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KJKL 142149
SVRJKL
KYC051-109-142215-
/O.NEW.KJKL.SV.W.0155.071114T2149Z-071114T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
449 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY
HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
  SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY

* UNTIL 515 PM EST

* AT 445 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR   
CRAWFORD...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF LONDON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35   
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SIDELL...HIGH KNOB AND MALCOMB BY 455 PM EST...
  BERNICE...FALL ROCK...TREADWAY AND BURNING SPRINGS BY 500 PM EST...
  TANKSLEY...MILL POND AND LAUREL CREEK BY 505 PM EST...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2...
WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3717 8397 3720 8395 3725 8395 3726 8402
      3729 8402 3742 8386 3740 8382 3736 8381
      3734 8376 3734 8371 3725 8352 3713 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 268DEG 32KT 3721 8390

$$

GEOGERIAN

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 142202
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
501 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

KYC051-109-142215-
/O.CON.KJKL.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-071114T2215Z/
JACKSON KY-CLAY KY-
501 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EST
FOR NORTHERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

AT 500 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BURNING SPRINGS...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTH OF
MANCHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TEGES...FELTY...AMMIE AND ONEIDA BY 510 PM EST...
  BRUTUS BY 515 PM EST...

TO REPORT TORNADOS...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6
7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3717 8397 3720 8395 3725 8395 3726 8402
      3729 8402 3742 8386 3740 8382 3736 8381
      3734 8376 3734 8371 3725 8352 3713 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 255DEG 31KT 3726 8380

$$

SBH

000 
WWUS53 KJKL 142214
SVSJKL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
511 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

KYC051-109-142221-
/O.EXP.KJKL.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-071114T2215Z/
JACKSON KY-CLAY KY-
511 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN CLAY AND SOUTHEASTERN
JACKSON COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 515 PM EST...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS WEAKENED 
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING 
WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 515 PM EST. A SPOTTER REPORTED NICKEL 
SIZE HAIL NEAR SACKER GAP IN CLAY COUNTY AT 5 PM.

TO REPORT TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE AT...1...8 7 7...6 3 3...6
7 7 2...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3717 8397 3720 8395 3725 8395 3726 8402
      3729 8402 3742 8386 3740 8382 3736 8381
      3734 8376 3734 8371 3725 8352 3713 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 255DEG 31KT 3728 8370

$$

SBH

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Nov 14, 2:44 PM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 14, 2:44 PM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
244 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...UPDATED

SHORT TERM FOCUS REMAINS ON THE COLD FRONT. AT 19Z FRONT IS ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER ALONG THE INDIANA KENTUCKY STATE LINE...AND THEN
NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST OHIO. AS UPPER TROF IN THE PLAINS AMPLIFIES
RAPIDLY THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS HAVE FOLLOWED THE 12Z NAM FOR THE NEAR
TERM. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE FRONT. THE 12Z
NAM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 06Z NAM...AND MAYBE ABOUT 1 HOUR
SLOWER. 19Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST TN.
THIS HAS SLOWED THE FRONT...BUT AS THIS MOVES NORTHEAST OF AREA
TONIGHT EXPECT FRONT TO ACCELERATE. EXPECT FRONT JUST AT THE WESTERN
BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 00Z...AND THEN EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA AROUND 05Z. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THIS IS BEING CONFIRMED BY LATEST
RADAR IMAGERY. 19Z MSAS SHOWS LI/S TO -5 SOUTHWEST KY TO -2 OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NAM SHOWS MU CAPE OF 800 PLUS IN
THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY 00Z. BEST INSTABILIY IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
INCREASES AS SMALL JET MAX MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST KY. AT THE SAME
TIME LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH 8H SOUTHWESTERLY JET INCREASING TO
30 PLUS KNOTS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. STILL A
SMALL CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE TN BORDER LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. NOTE THAT WFO LMK HAS ISSUED SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNINGS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. ALL IN ALL HIGH POPS WARRANTED
TONIGHT...AND WILL GO WITH DEFINITE OVER MOST AREAS. WILL FOLLOW HPC
QPF FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MUCH COLDER AIR SWEEPS INTO AREA...AS 1000-500
THICKNESS AND 8H TEMPS TAKE A RAPID PLUNGE. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MAV
MOS TEMPERATURES BUT HAVE NOT FOLLOWED A TRADITIONAL DIURNAL CURVE
FOR TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE LITTLE TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON THURSDAY.
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S. WITH
SOME UPSLOPE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ON THURSDAY...AS FAR NW AS JKL. A FEW SNOWFLAKES
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND THESE ARE IN THE GRIDDED
FORECAST. COOL DRY WEATHER ON TAP FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPDATED

UPPER TROF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER KY...BUT
FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
BY TUESDAY SOME RIDGING WILL BE OVER THE TN VALLEY. ON SATURDAY SHORT
WAVE TROF WILL SWING BY TO OUR NORTH. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS. MAIN CHANGE IN THE LONG TERM IS TO GO WITH
DRY FORECAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH HPC...AND THE
00Z ECMWF AND 00Z AND 12Z GFS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MVFR EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN KY. THE
FOCUS WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER IN SOUTHERN INDIANA AT 17Z. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST...REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z. EXPECT FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SME AROUND 02Z AND JKL AND LOZ AROUND 03Z. FRONT TO BE
MOVING INTO VIRGINIA AROUND 06Z. EXPECT SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AHEAD
AND ALONG FRONT WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL...WITH SOME ISOLATED IFR. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY...WITH VFR CONDTIONS PREVAILING INTO
THURSDAY. SOME MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THOUGH ACROSS THE NORTH AND
EAST PART OF AREA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SBH

Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 14, 8:19 AM EST, 8 hours 30 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 AM EST WED NOV 14 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-151300-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
819 AM EST WED NOV 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE
TENNESSEE BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO FREEZING OR BELOW BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DUSTY/SBH

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Nov 14, 4:09 PM EST, 40 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
409 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

KYZ080-116-142145-
LAUREL-CLAY-
409 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND NORTHERN
LAUREL COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AT 409 PM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST
OF BUNCH...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR BERNSTADT AROUND 415 PM EST...EAST BERNSTADT
AROUND 420 PM EST...PITTSBURG AROUND 425 PM EST...MAPLESVILLE AROUND
430 PM EST...LANGNAU AROUND 435 PM EST...

RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP
TO ONE-HALF INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS.

SBH

Local storm report, Nov 14, 4:43 PM EST, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
443 PM EST WED NOV 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TORNADO          5 NW LONDON             37.18N 84.15W
11/14/2007                   LAUREL             KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE EAST BURNSTAT WITH DEBRIS SEEN IN THE
            AIR. POWER LINES DOWN

&&

BTERRIZZ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 14, 4:29 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Laurel	31 min
Nov 14, 4:37 PM EST	Tornado Warning	JKL	Laurel	23 min
Nov 14, 5:16 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Clay, Leslie, Perry	29 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.