Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
310 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER ERN LK ERIE WITH VORTS AND S/WV
SPINNING AROUND IT AND TRACKING THRU THE AREA. SHRA/TSRA INITIATING
ALONG ONE OF THOSE BNDRIES WITH SFC TEMPS FINALLY REACHING CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S. EXPECT PCPN ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING AND THEN BEGIN DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF SFC
HEATING. SOME ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE LONGER IN THE ERN PORTION OF CWFA
AS THE S/WV BNDRY INTERACTS WITH THE HIER TERRAIN. STORMS ARE
PROGRESSIVE ENUF THAT FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LIMITED TO ISOLATED
DITCHES...CREEKS AND SMALL STREAMS.

ALTHOUGH BOTH NAM/GFS INITIALLIZE WELL THE NAM TAKES A MAJOR TURN
WITH A LLVL LOW PRESS AREA DROPPING SOUTH INTO ERN KY RATHER THAN THE
CONCENSUS POSITION OF ROTATION THRU THE BASE OF THE ERN TROF AND THEN
TRACKING E/NE OR MAKING A JUMP TO THE LEE TROF ON THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE MTNS AND MERGING WITH A HATTERAS LOW BEFORE TRACKING UP THE COAST
TO THE NE. HAVE FOLLOWED THE GENERAL TREND OF THE GFS AND DELAYED
ONSLAUGHT OF PCPN UNTIL FRI NIGHT/SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
STARTING LATE FRI NIGHT. COPIOUS MOISTURE AVAILABLE AS INDICATED ON A
BROAD AREA (BASICALLY EVERYTHING EAST OF THE MS RVR) OF 60 DEG DWPTS.
HAVE RAISED QPF FOR THIS TIME PD ALSO. TEMPS IN A GENERAL TREND OF
SLIGHT INCREASE ON FRI AND THEN SLIGHT DECR FOR SAT WITH THE HEAVY
CLOUDS AND PERVASIVE PCPN.

.LONG TERM.../SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...UPDATED
SOME LINGERING PCPN POSSIBLE IN OUR ERN COUNTIES INTO MON AS THE
DEVELOPING LOW EAST OF THE MTNS BRINGS SOME MOIST FLOW FROM THE
W VA/PA. OTHERWISE AS THE ERN LOW TRACKS UP THE COAST IT SHOULD TAKE
THE PCPN CHCS WITH IT AND WILL FCST DRY CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF
THE EXTENDED. ALONG WITH THE PCPN...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN A SLOW RISE TO SEASONAL LEVELS AND SHOULD
SEE READINGS NEAR 90 BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WERE JUST HITTING THE CONVECTIVE TEMP AT TAF ISSUANCE.
VSBYS AND PERHAPS CEILINGS COULD BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR RANGE OR
EVEN IFR RANGE IN THE STRONGEST SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
PREDOMINANT VRF VSBY AND CIG...AT LEAST UNTIL A BETTER HANDLE CAN BE
OBTAINED ON EXACT TRENDS AND TIMING SHOULD MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION TAKE AIM AT AREA TERMINALS. EXPECT SOME VALLEY FOG AGAIN
LATE IN THE PERIOD...PRETTY MUCH ALONG THE LINES OF PERSISTENCE.
THEREFORE...INCLUDED SOME MVFR VISBYS...MAINLY AT KLOZ AS THIS HAS
BEEN THE PATTERN. EXPECT TO BEEF FOG UP A BIT IF THE AREA PICKS UP
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

WILL CONTINUE TO NIL AMD KSME WITH MISSING SKY CONDITIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...DUSTY
AVIATION...RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
408 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-272315-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
408 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING... WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ON
SATURDAY... ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS... OR WHERE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN REPORTS OF HAIL... DAMAGING
WIND... OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
JACKSON.

DUSTY

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