Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
336 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2007

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED

AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH
A SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE AREA...SPAWNED FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW ROTATING OVER VIRGINIA. COOL AND DRY MID-LEVELS HAVE AIDED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...SOME GOOD
FOR OVER 3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES.

EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ROTATES THROUGH AND THE LOSS OF HEATING. THIS MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION WILL BE A REOCCURRING THEME THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE DURING
PEAK HEATING TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW. DRY AIR IS NOT AS AVAILABLE TOMORROW AND WET-BULBS WILL
BE A BIT HIGHER...SO WILL NOT MENTION THE THREAT OF SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A GOOD BET THOUGH WHEREVER MORE INTENSE
ECHOES FORM AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO. GIVEN THE EXTRA
CLOUDINESS AND POPS...MOS CONTINUES TO COME WITH A BIT LESS OF A
DIURNAL RANGE...SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...UPDATED

UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PESTER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE A MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVERTAKES THIS FEATURE
AND SENDS A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE
STILL REMAINS A LOT OF QUESTION IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...AS
LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE HINTING AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE
BOUNDARY...EXITING IT BY SUNDAY. STILL LIKE THE IDEA OF A SLOWER
PROGRESSION...WHICH CORRELATES WITH THE HPC SOLUTION. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING BACK TO
ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.
A FEW OF THESE WILL BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL DUE TO A STEEP LAPSE
RATE FROM THE COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW LURKING NEARBY. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE TAFS AND PLACED A TEMPO IN JKL/S.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA EVEN AFTER
SUNSET SO KEPT VCSH IN AS WELL. THE INCREASE IN SFC MOISTURE AS THE
HIGH HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED AWAY...PLUS ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM
THE CONVECTION WILL MAKE MVFR FOG A GOOD BET AT LOZ AND SME LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT ADDITIONAL...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ON
TUESDAY WITH A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SET UP. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS FOR THESE AS WELL. EXCEPT FOR THE STORMS...WINDS WILL
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
409 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-241100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
409 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MOREHEAD
TO MONTICELLO. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING...CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE LIKELY IN AN THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND DEPENDING ON WHICH AREAS SEE
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A
THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY HAIL...WIND DAMAGE...OR HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

GEOGERIAN

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