Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WWUS83 KJKL 231927
RFWJKL

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
327 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

.RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO 35 PERCENT OR BETTER FOR MOST
AREAS. ALTHOUGH SOME SOUTH FACING SLOPES MAY STILL SEE RH VALUES NEAR
30 PERCENT AND WINDS ARE STILL GUSTING TO BETWEEN 15 TO 20 MPH THE
CRITERIA FOR THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NOT MET. EXPECT THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOCAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

KYZ086>088-107>120-232030-
/O.CAN.KJKL.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-070423T2200Z/
KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
327 PM EDT MON APR 23 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO 35 PERCENT OR BETTER FOR MOST
AREAS. EXPECT THE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE TO BRING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE LOCAL RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES.

$$

DUSTY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1035 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2007

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TONIGHT/...UPDATED

MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE TO LOWER THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS SOME...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. DRY AIR REMAINS IN
PLACE...WITH DEWPOINTS SLOW TO RISE IN THIS AREA. DEWPOINTS IN THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR CWA HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID
40S...WITH MAINLY LOWER TO MID 30S ELSEWHERE. AT 10 PM AT JKL...WE
WERE STILL AT 73 DEGREES...WITH A DEWPOINT OF 27. SKIES SHOULD BE
MAINLY CLEAR...WITH A FEW AC AND CI WORKING THEIR WAY IN OVERNIGHT.
ALSO THINKING THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN
THE EAST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A GOOD TEMPERATURE DECREASE. KEPT THE
RIDGE TOP TEMPERATURES UP...WITH MID TO UPPER 50S. THERE WILL BE
SOME STRONGER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TONIGHT ALSO. INCLUDED
WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS FOR THIS OVERNIGHT.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN HAS HIGH PRESS OVER THE SERN COAST WITH A
STRENGTHENING LOW OVER ERN NEB. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH GUSTY WINDS IN CNTRL KY. T/TD ACROSS ERN KY
INDICATING RH VALUES BETWEEN 22 AND 26 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY WE DO NOT
HAVE THE WINDS FOR RED FLAG AND BY THIS TIME TUE WE SHOULD SEE AN
INCREASE IN DWPT WHEN WE GET A BETTER WIND PATTERN WITH THE PRE-
FRONT. SOME DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN MODELS... EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM.
NAM IS SLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS WITH THE PUSH OF THE
PLAINS LOW. THIS POSITIONING INDICATES LESS PCPN AND IS THE FAVORED
SOLUTION. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE OMEGA BLOCK... THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING EWRD PROGRESS AND SHOULD BE SHUNTED NWRD.
HAVE DOWNPLAYED POPS FOR THE MON/MON NITE PERIOD AND EVEN INTO TUE
WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE. ALSO WITH A NWRD TRACK... THE FNTL BNDRY
WILL BECOME STATIONARY FARTHER NORTH AS WELL. THINKING IS THAT THE
FNT SHOULD STALL IN VCNTY OF I70 RATHER THAN THE OH RVR. THIS WOULD
KEEP ERN KY IN THE WRM SECTOR OR WITH MORE OF THE PCPN NORTH OF THE
RVR.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
STUCK WITH THE GFS SOLUTION AGAIN TODAY. IN FACT...THE
GFS...HPC...AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WERE ALL A BIT MORE IN SYNC
TODAY...WITH ALL THREE MODELS GOING WITH A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER FOR MIDWEEK...AND A DECENT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE
AREA WED AND THU. MADE ONLY A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST.
MODIFIED SKY COVER FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT MORE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
STILL SHOWING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM 21Z WED THROUGH 12Z THU.
ALSO INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODEL DATA
STILL SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR WED
AND THU...WITH LIFTED INDICES AS LOW AS -3 ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT CHANGES MADE TO
TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS WERE GOOD
SHAPE ALREADY AND WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. AGAIN WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN MEXMOS FOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING LOW
WED AND THU. WENT A BIT COOLER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT STILL CLOSE TO MEXMOS FOR HIGH TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WERE ADJUSTED TO STAY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN MOS...AS
PERSISTENT CLOUD IS FORECAST WHICH WILL MINIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING
DURING THE NIGHT TIME PERIODS. QPF AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED
TO REFLECT CHANGES MADE TO POP FORECAST. OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS
NOT CHANGED MUCH.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.
AS SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVE OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...ADDED
WIND SHEAR TO THE FORECAST. WINDS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 35 KT 1500 FT AGL ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO OVERNIGHT...SOME MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DROPPED THE MENTION OF WIND SHEAR AFTER
14Z MONDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING MIXES SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER BY MONDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA...NORTH OF
JKL. MENTIONED VCSH AT JKL...BUT NOT AT LOZ OR SME...FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...BUT A THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP. ADDED A CB CLOUD TYPE AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES TO INDICATE SOME CONVECTION IN THE AREA...BUT THE
CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM OCCURS OVER A TAF SITE IS MINIMAL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DUSTY/WJM
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...WJM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
417 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-232330-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
417 PM EDT SUN APR 22 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DUSTY