Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1156 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED
AT 11:45 PM TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ELLIOT COUNTY TO
JUST WEST OF JACKSON TO JUST WEST OF LONDON TO WEST OF WHITLEY CITY.
THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THERE IS A LINE
OF SHOWERS AS WELL. THERE IS STILL SOME CONVECTION ABOUT 40 TO 50
MILES BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THEN DROPS OFF PRETTY FAST. ALL THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SUBSIDED. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF ABOUT 10
DEGREES WITHIN AN HOUR OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE NEXT BIG PUSH WILL BE
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND ALONG
WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIT A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AT
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/THE REST OF TONIGHT/
A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED WITH THE
COLD FRONT AS IT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS LINE IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THESE ARE GARDEN VARIETY STORMS AND NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THEM. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE DROP AND THE WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST AGAIN WHEN THE
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE WRF AND GFS FOR THE SYSTEM AFFECTING
THE AREA. HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE WRF FOR THE DETAILS IN THE FIRST
COUPLE OF PERIODS...WITH A TRANSITION TO THE GFS FOR THE LATER
PERIODS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OVER KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THEN TRANSITION EAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME A MAJOR COASTAL
STORM AS IT TURNS NE.

THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. FURTHER
NW...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE INTERMITTENT. AS OF MID DAY...A FEW
RIVER FORECAST POINTS WERE FORECAST TO MARGINALLY REACH FLOOD STAGE
BASED ON QPF. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IN THE EVENT...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE QPF WAS TOO HIGH...WHICH WOULD MEAN LOWER RIVER STAGES.

EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO MOVE OUT FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE BACK IN FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...ALONG
WITH COLD AIR. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIP. IF
PRECIP GETS BACK INTO THE AREA SOON ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW
THAT MIXES IN EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS
THAT PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY AT LOW
ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN THE SOUTHEAST...COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY
INVADE IN THE MORNING...WITH ELEVATIONS ABOVE ROUGHLY 2500 FEET
EXPECTED TO FALL TO FREEZING OR BELOW. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...THE
PRECIP WILL BECOME CONVECTIVE IN NATURE SUNDAY EVENING...BUT WITH
LESS COVERAGE. MODEL QPF SUGGESTS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WHERE TEMPS
ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION. ALTHOUGH... WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF LOCALIZED AMOUNTS TOP THIS DUE TO FLUFF FACTOR IN CONVECTIVE
UPSLOPE PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WANES LATER ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PRECIP
SHOULD BE GONE BY MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MODELS CONTINUE TO FIND DIFFERENCES IN HOW TO HANDLE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THE
GFS IN PARTICULAR WAFFLES ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE DISTURBANCE
TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND THE SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE 12Z GFS SHOWED ENOUGH INTERACTION TO WARRANT A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF WHICH KEEPS
THE SYSTEMS APART. HOWEVER...DID INCREASE POPS IN THE NORTH AND EAST
BASED ON THE LATEST MOVEMENT OF THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE. THIS
SCENARIO HAD SOME SUPPORT FROM FROM THE 12Z WRF AS WELL.

THEREAFTER...EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MORE QUIET
WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE AXIS OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SHIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AREA.
AS A RESULT TRENDED WARMER WITH EXTENDED TEMPS TO AROUND NORMAL AND
BEYOND BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TO 24Z/

MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH JKL AND LOZ...WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT SME.
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO CONTINUE DROPPING THROUGH 6Z TO IFR AT LOZ AND
SME AND TO LIFR AT JKL...WITH CIGS BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 FEET ACROSS
THE BOARD. LATEST SURFACE OBS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST INDICATING
THIS TREND ALREADY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE FA AT THIS TIME.
EXPECTING LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z TOMORROW. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN CEILINGS TO MVFR BY 15Z AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES...AND TO VFR BY 18Z AT BOTH LOZ AND SME. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
ENOUGH TO KEEP MUCH FOG FROM FORMING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY FROM 12 PM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118-
120.

&&

SHORT TERM...HAL/JJ
LONG TERM....RAY
AVIATION...RAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1210 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-
151100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-
LESLIE-MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...SANDY HOOK...
WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...
BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...
HYDEN...INEZ
1210 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
CHANGE PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW...OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND
SNOW...FOR MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

KYZ087-088-118-120-151100-
BELL-HARLAN-LETCHER-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN...
WHITESBURG...PIKEVILLE
1210 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY ABOVE 2500
FEET...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

COLDER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
CHANGE PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW...OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND
SNOW...FOR MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE
SEEN FIRST AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...BUT WILL THEN GRADUALLY LOWER TO ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY MONDAY MORNING. 1 TO 3
INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY MORNING
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET. LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GEOGERIAN/AR/JJ