Wind Advisory 8, NWS Jacksonville, FL

000 
WWUS72 KJAX 290904
NPWJAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
504 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-300000-
/O.EXT.KJAX.WI.Y.0008.070929T1400Z-070930T0000Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE...
ST AUGUSTINE...PALM COAST...BRUNSWICK...ST MARYS
504 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

LOCAL NOREASTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST SOUTH OF
JACKSONVILLE TO FLAGLER BEACH INCLUDING ST AUGUSTINE.

MINOR DAMAGE TO TREES...POWER LINES...AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE
WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. MOTORISTS IN HIGH PROFILES VEHICLES
ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION UNTIL THE WIND SUBSIDES...PARTICULARLY
WHILE DRIVING OVER BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

$$

FLZ032-037-GAZ153-165-300000-
/O.EXT.KJAX.LW.Y.0029.070929T1400Z-070930T0000Z/
CLAY-PUTNAM-INLAND GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREEN COVE SPRINGS...PALATKA...WOODBINE
504 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

LOCAL NOREASTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG THE INLAND WATERWAYS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER BASIN IN CLAY
AND PUTNAM COUNTIES.

SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING. BOATERS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA SHOULD AVOID OPEN WATER AND STAY CLOSE TO SHORE IN
WIND PROTECTED INLETS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE EXTRA
CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING AS WELL.

$$

CARROLL

000 
WWUS72 KJAX 300001
NPWJAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
801 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

FLZ024-025-033-038-GAZ154-166-300900-
/O.EXP.KJAX.WI.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-070930T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KJAX.LW.Y.0029.070930T0001Z-071001T0000Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-COASTAL GLYNN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE...
ST AUGUSTINE...PALM COAST...BRUNSWICK...ST MARYS
801 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY. THE
WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
INTRA-COASTAL WATERWAY AND ST. JOHNS RIVER. THUS...A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL
LIKELY OVERSPREAD THE INLAND PORTIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER WINDS.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
25 MPH OR GUSTS OF 30 TO 39 MPH ARE EXPECTED. SMALL BOATS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING. BOATERS IN THE ADVISORY AREA
SHOULD AVOID OPEN WATER AND STAY CLOSE TO SHORE IN WIND PROTECTED
INLETS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD USE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN
TRAVELING AS WELL.

$$

FLZ032-037-GAZ153-165-300115-
/O.EXP.KJAX.LW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-070930T0000Z/
CLAY-PUTNAM-INLAND GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREEN COVE SPRINGS...PALATKA...WOODBINE
801 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING. 

NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WITH MOST STATIONS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 MPH ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. THESE
WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED ON SUNDAY AS LOCAL NOREASTER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA.

BOATERS ARE STILL URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION IF VENTURING ONTO AREA
WATERWAYS THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE ON THE OPEN
WATERS.

$$

ECZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT PRESSING INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHING ACRS NERN FL WILL LEAD TO SCTD
SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-10.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACRS NERN FL THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. NO FOG PROBLEMS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY 4-6SM VSBYS ACRS THE GNV-OCF VICINITY BEFORE THE WIND SURGE
REACHES THAT AREA AFTER SUNRISE...HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZFP FOR
NOW. SATURDAY...LOCAL NOREASTER CONDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION
AND HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE COAST AND LAKE
WIND ADVISORIES JUST INLAND TO COVER 20 TO 30 MPH NELY WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. WILL
LEAVE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW AS HIGH TIDE CYCLE SAT
NIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST ONE IMPACTED WITH POSSIBLE MODERATE FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACRS NERN FL WILL
SLOWLY WIND DOWN IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY
NIGHT...MUCH OF THE COASTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END
DUE TO DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...BUT NELY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CRANK AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE KEPT UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BREAKERS WILL
LIKELY HIT 6 TO 8 FT SAT NIGHT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO
BE POSTED. HIGH TIDE CYCLE SHOULD FEATURE MINOR TO MODERATE EROSION
AND FLOODING.
SUNDAY...LOCAL NOREASTER WILL CONTINUE WITH NELY WINDS JUST AS
STRONG AS SAT AND WIND ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE RE-POSTED FOR THE
COAST AND JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. BREAKERS
WILL CONTINUE HIGH IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE WITH MINOR/MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY LONG-LIVED AND DANGEROUS LOCAL NOREASTER CONDS WILL REMAIN ALL
WEEK WITH MODELS TRYING TO DEVELOP WEAK SFC LOWS IN THE BAHAMAS
REGION TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AT RANDOM TIMES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE COAST
OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE...IN FACT
THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING ONLY 1 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE NEXT
8 DAYS FROM JACKSONVILLE TO OCALA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST INCLUDING ST
AUGUSTINE. WITH THE LONG FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LONG DURATION
OF THE EVENT...WATER WILL BEGIN TO PILE-UP IN THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN AND TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 2 FT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE
WEEK ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION AND FLOODING ALONG
THE COAST. BREAKERS AS HIGH AS 7 TO 10 FEET EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN HIGH WITH HIGH SURF ADVISORIES CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE BY
00Z. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFT 15Z ESP NEAR THE
COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15-20 GUSTING TO 25 KT
INLAND...AND 20-25 GUSTING TO 35 KT NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY READINGS CURRENTLY SHOWING 2 TO 3 FT SEAS WITH WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KT. NORTHEAST SURGE WILL BEGIN TONIGHT WITH SCA BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT AND GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ALONG WITH SEAS CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS
THIS WEEKEND.

SURF ZONE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TOMORROW AND THIS
WEEKEND CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT LOCAL BEACHES. A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH (MIACFWJAX) FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ON
SATURDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR 35% OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. DO NOT FEEL THAT DURATION WILL BE MET TO WARRANT A RFW AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER THE MIDSHIFT WILL REEVALUATE AS NEW GUIDANCE IS
AVAILABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  85  57  83 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  73  81  70  78 /  20  10  10  10
JAX  70  84  66  81 /  30  30  10  20
SGJ  73  84  71  82 /  30  40  10  20
GNV  68  86  65  84 /  30  30  10   0
OCF  69  87  67  86 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CLAY-
     PUTNAM.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING      FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INLAND
     CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING      FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

HESS/HURLBUT/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-290915-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
1005 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH DEVELOPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW WINDS
TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...WE WILL BE ENTERING A HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS THE WINDS AND
SEAS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. WITH INCREASING TIDAL DEPARTURES
EXPECTED...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AND FURTHER
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN THE PRODUCT FOR THIS EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ALL INDICATIONS ARE THIS WILL BE A LONG DURATION STRONG NORTHEAST
FLOW EVENT WITH CONTINUED COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...SURF BREAKERS WILL INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET
WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD. PLEASE REFER TO
SUBSEQUENT COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS...ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS AS
WELL AS THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST TO STAY ABREAST OF THIS
DEVELOPING COASTAL WEATHER SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

DEESE/HESS