Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FIRE WEATHER SECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
306 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...
...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

TODAY...PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE FINALLY ON THE DOOR STEP OF
FORECAST AREA AND IT WILL MAKE A FINAL PUSH THROUGH THE MID
MORNING HOURS WITH ISOLD SVR STORMS WITH WIND/ISOLD TORNADOES. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE A TOR WATCH FOR NE FL AS SQUALL LINE PUSHES EAST OUT
OF THE GOMEX. VERY STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG JET TO MIX DOWN WEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE AT
TIMES AND HAVE LEFT CURRENT WIND ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAX TEMPS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 70S THIS MORNING WITH FALLING TEMPS
THROUGH THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH BRISK WEST WINDS
CONTINUING AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH CONTINUING. MIN
TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S TOWARD MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE 30S AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SUNNY...COOL AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH WEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS MAX TEMPS TOP
OUT IN THE LOWER 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT...NWLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH COOL
MIN TEMPS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 40S UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION WITH WINDS
SETTLING DOWN TO 10 MPH OR LESS BY THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND MILD TEMPS REBOUNDING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
QUICK MOVING SFC LOW WILL PUSH ACRS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ISOLD/SCTD SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-BUILD
IN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL GA/BIG BEND AREA BY
08Z AND PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH 14Z. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SQUALL...INCLUDING +TSRA WITH IFR IN THE
STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THE LINE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WILL VEER
TO SUSTAINED WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 KT BY 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. INCLUDED THE
NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE GALE WARNING...WHICH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY. SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS BEGINNING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ISOLATED CELLS DEVELOPING
AHEAD. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. NO OTHER CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO HEADLINES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DROPPED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RFW FOR TODAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BRIEFLY APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES. THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 45 MPH AT TIMES. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW
DUE TO WINDS AND CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  39  72  44 /  50   0   0   0
SSI  73  46  68  51 /  60   0   0   0
JAX  72  41  73  47 /  60   0   0   0
SGJ  75  45  72  51 /  60   0   0   0
GNV  71  41  73  46 /  60   0   0   0
OCF  72  42  72  45 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

HESS/HURLBUT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
622 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-161000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
622 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...APPLING...ATKINSON...BACON...COFFEE...JEFF
DAVIS...WAYNE...PIERCE AND WARE...

...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY...

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

.HIGH WIND IMPACT...
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH THIS MORNING
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. THESE
WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE AND SOME POWER
OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. GALE FORCE
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
MORNING...THEN WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH WEST WINDS OF 20 TO
25 WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS DRY AIR
PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED AT THIS TIME IN THE TORNADO WATCH
AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

HESS

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