Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1007 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

...SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

.PUBLIC UPDATE...ANOTHER POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH UPPER
LOW JUST TO THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH ATTENDANT VORT
LOBES...DIURNAL HEATING...SEA BREEZE EFFECTS AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL YET AGAIN BRING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS JAX CWA. AFTER
MODIFYING 12Z KJAX SOUNDING USING AMBIENT TEMP OF 83 DEGREES AND
DEWPOINT VALUE OF 65 DEGREES...A CAPE VALUE AROUND 2200 J/KG WAS
REALIZED. THUS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS OF HAIL (DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT AND
SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL SHEAR) AND FUNNEL CLOUDS/WATERSPOUTS DUE TO
HIGH CAPE AND LOW SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...AS ADVERTISED BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT...COLD POOL INDUCED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. REMAINDER OF
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND AFFECT
PRIMARILY THE FLORIDA SITES. WILL INDICATE A TEMPO AFTERNOON GROUP
FOR GNV AND KEEP COASTAL SITES AT VCTS FOR NOW DUE TO DEVELOPING
NORTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...BUOYS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. NO HEADLINES TODAY WITH NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND SPEED AND THE SEAS.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

.PREVIOUS PUBLIC...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE FCST TO CONTINUE SHIFTING S-SE
THRU THE MORNING HOURS. OUTFLOWS FROM EARLY CONVECTION WILL
INTERACT WITH E-NE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT PRECIP FOCUS FARTHER
INLAND LATER IN THE DAY. IN ADDITION...LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE DECLINE AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS N OF THE BAHAMAS AND THE UPPER
TROF SHIFTS SLOWLY SE. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE WETTER MAV MOS GUIDANCE. SEVERE
STORMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY DUE TO THE COLD
TEMPS ALOFT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL...BUT GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
PROBABLE.

LAYER MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON THU BUT LESS
IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS AND COOLER LOW-LEVEL TEMPS WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE. MORE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND VORTICITY IS
PROGGED FOR FRI. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING...WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE LOW TO MID CHANCE RANGE.

TEMPS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THRU THU...WITH
READINGS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER. A GENERAL MOS TEMP
BLEND WAS USED...LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER MAV FOR THU THRU FRI.

LONG TERM...HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. TEMPS
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. LOWER POPS ARE PROGGED FOR SAT
THRU MON BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND BRINGS AND
INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP BY TUE.

&&

ZAPPE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1142 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-141000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1142 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391 IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
DISTURBANCES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...ALL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MOST NUMEROUS
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH ACTIVITY MOSTLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 15 MPH.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION...A MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS IN
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS...SHORT-LIVED FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND EXTENDING EAST
TO THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA NEAR-SHORE WATERS. THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS CAN
CAUSE DAMAGE IF THEY TOUCH DOWN. ALSO WATERSPOUTS POSE A SERIOUS
HAZARD TO MARINERS AND CAN CAPSIZE A SMALL CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
AGAIN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE TODAY IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL/ZAPPE

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