Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.SHORT TERM...BROAD UPPER LOW EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH BELT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGHS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. DOPPLER RADARS CURRENTLY SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MARION COUNTY AND THESE
SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA ON NORTHERN FRIDGE OF
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SEA
BREEZES ARE PUSHING INLAND AND THESE FEATURES WILL COLLIDE WELL
INLAND...COMPLIMENTS OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. THUS...ANTICIPATE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SPINE OF
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS BELT OF
SUBTROPICAL HIGHS PHASE AND INTENSITY OVER THE GULF COAST REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WILL BE COMMON AWAY FROM
THE COAST DUE TO INCREASING HEIGHTS. THESE TEMPS WHEN COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH POCKETS OF AROUND 100 POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR WESTERN-MOST ZONES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CAP POPS
AT 30 PERCENT FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH FOCUS AGAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. HEIGHTS/SUBSIDENCE WILL FURTHER INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND
WILL CAP POPS AT 20 PERCENT IN RESPONSE TO THIS.

MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST...
ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH TO DIG ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DYNAMICS
WILL INCREASE AS EMBEDDED IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION...WITH
POPS RETURNING TO CHANCE CATEGORY AREA-WIDE.

.LONG TERM (TUE THRU FRI)...SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO
POSITION OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. REGIONALLY...UPPER
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WITH WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN/STEERING FLOW ESTABLISHING...SEA-BREEZES WILL LIKELY
COLLIDE WELL INLAND EACH DAY. HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE ELEVATED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO COOLING TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
DIGGING TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...WITH MAIN AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE INCLUDED A SHORT TERM TEMPO FOR THE
GNV TERMINAL. SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING JUST EAST OF OCALA SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT REMAINING SITES WITH
JUST A VCSH INCLUDED FOR THE PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE. FOG TOOLS
INDICATE BEST CHANCES OF REDUCED VSBY WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AND HAVE GONE WITH 4SM MILES THERE AND BCFG ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WE ARE SEEING A MORE TRANQUIL PATTERN OVER THE AREA.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A PATTERN SHIFT IN STORE FOR SAT AS WEAK
TROUGH NOSES DOWN THE COAST RESULTING IN MORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW BUT REMAINING LIGHT. RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUED LIGHT WIND
FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AND MIXING PRESENT
OVER THE GA ZONES...RH VALUES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER
SOME LOCATIONS. THESE WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S OVER
GA AND UPPER 30S OVER THE FLORIDA PORTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWEST RH VALUES TO RESIDE OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DRIER AIR LOOKS TO
ADVECT IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  70  94 /  10  20  10  20
SSI  73  88  74  88 /  10  20  10  20
JAX  69  92  70  91 /  10  20  10  20
SGJ  71  86  71  88 /   0  20  10  20
GNV  67  93  69  93 /  20  30  20  20
OCF  67  93  68  93 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ZAPPE/DEESE/WALKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
317 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-091000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
317 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.HEADLINES...

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MMH

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