Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
252 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

...ISOLD STRONG/SVR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR S FL ZONES...

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS BREAKING OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL
ZONES WHERE OUTFLOW FORCING IS COMBINING WITH AFTN INSTABILITY. SPC
HAS INCLUDED THESE ZONES IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERNS BEING HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOWED CAPES IN THE 3-4K J/KG RANGE
WITH MODIFIED SFC T/TD OF 84/70 DEG. LEADING EDGE OF SFC COLD FRONT
IS APPROACHING THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. ALOFT A MEAN TROUGH WAS PUSHING
OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WHILE A STRONG RIDGE WAS BUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WED...
TONIGHT...FOLLOWING EVENING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SEABREEZES
AND OUTFLOW FORCING ACROSS OUR S FL ZONES...EXPECT A COOLER MORE
STABLE NNE SURGE DOWN THE COAST WITH POSSIBLE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z ALONG OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. STRATUS
TRAILING THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST... AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHRA AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND WILL COMBINE WITH PATCHY FOG... ALTHOUGH NOT SURE IF A
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED SINCE WINDS WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERE
MIXED...BUT HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF SMOKE FOR AREAS ALONG THE I-10
AND I-75 CORRIDORS. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S INLAND
TO NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.

TUE AND WED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL BRIDGE THE SFC FRONT CONFINING THE DEEPEST MOISTURE TO OUR
SOUTH WHILE BRINGING A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR
AREA. EXPECT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEED FOR AT LEAST THE
COASTAL ZONES AS WELL AS CLAY AND PUTNAM COUNTIES WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH TUE. FURTHER INLAND EXPECT
BREEZY WINDS 15-20 MPH. WED BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG
THE COAST.

WE MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW AFTN/EVENING
SHRA/TS MAINLY S OF FLAGLER BEACH TO OCALA EACH AFTN. FLOW WILL VEER
ESE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS FOCUSED INLAND TOWARD
THE I-75 CORRIDOR. TUE MAXES IN THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST TO LOW 80S INLAND...THEN WED MORE OF A SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
STRONGER RIDGING ALOFT WILL WARM TEMPS INTO THE LOW 80S COAST TO
UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN...
NEXT SHOT OF PRECIP IS THU ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
TRAILING THE FRONT COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRI AND SAT. SFC RIDGE
BUILDS OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AND TEMPS MODIFYING FROM THE LOW 80S FRI TO
THE UPPER 80S BY SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...GNV WILL BE MVFR WITH SMOKE THRU THE EVNG AND TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED. OTHER TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL NE WINDS BRING
LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SURGE WILL PUSH THRU COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
ENTERING GA WATERS ARND MIDNIGHT AND REACHING THE SRN OFFSHORE
WATERS ARND SUNRISE. BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH MOVES EAST OF THE
WATERS AND SE WINDS/SEAS WILL DIMINISH. NEXT FRONT WILL KICK UP
WINDS THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN ON
MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH INLAND AND UP TO 25
MPH NEAR THE COAST...AND GUSTS UP TO 25 OR 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. BY TUESDAY EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON WED AND
THURS THEN INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER ANOTHER FRONT ON FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  82  57  85 /  20   0   0  10
SSI  67  74  66  77 /  30   0   0  10
JAX  66  77  61  82 /  30  10   0  10
SGJ  69  76  65  79 /  30  20  10  10
GNV  64  82  60  85 /  40  20  10  10
OCF  65  82  61  85 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR BAKER-
     COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.

GA...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHARLTON-
     CLINCH-ECHOLS-WARE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

ENYEDI/TRABERT/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
411 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-141000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
411 PM EDT SUN MAY 13 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE TO
SAINT AUGUSTINE THIS AFTERNOON...
...LARGE WILDFIRES CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF A GAINESVILLE TO SAINT AUGUSTINE LINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING.
STORM MOTION WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THIS
AFTERNOON...SO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.WILDFIRE AND DENSE SMOKE/FOG IMPACT...LARGE WILDFIRES CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION PROMPTING SOME EVACUATIONS AND ROAD CLOSURES.
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES.
PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS AND THE ELDERLY SHOULD REMAIN
INDOORS IN AREAS WITH THICK SMOKE.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES.

.WIND AND SEA IMPACT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
LEAD TO A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS CREATING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WILDFIRE AND SMOKE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ENYEDI

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