Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
...NOREASTER TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

.UPDATE...BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GA WILL MOVE SOUTH
TODAY BRINGING A NE SURGE OF WIND TO GA THIS AFTERNOON AND NE FL
THIS EVENING.  UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFYING WITH STRONG UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING OFF THE EAST COAST. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAND ALONG AND SOUTH OF
COLD FRONT AND NEAR SEABREEZE FRONT. MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL LIKE YESTERDAY DUE TO COOLING IN MID LEVELS. 12Z JAX
MODIFIED SOUNDING SHOWS CAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY
ISSUE WIND ADVISORY IN AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
TONIGHT DUE TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION...INCREASING NE WINDS AT SSI THIS AFTERNOON AND AT FL TAFS
THIS EVENING BY 00Z. VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 16Z-23Z. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO LOW CLOUDS BEHIND COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...NE SURGE JUST NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL MOVE INTO GA WATERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FL WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING.  SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH GALES TONIGHT.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-
     ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.

AM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
     NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

MZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-061600-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON...

...WILDFIRES CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND FLAGLER COUNTY
FLORIDA...
...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING......LAKE WIND ADVISORY LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS......HIGH SURF AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOMING GUSTY.
ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
SHIFTING AND GUSTY WINDS WHEN COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FOREST AREAS
COULD RESULT IN A FIRE THREAT TODAY...PLEASE USE CAUTION IN WOODED
AREAS.

SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT THE AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
LIGHTNING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE COAST BEHIND THE FRONT
RESULTING IN ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND
POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING INTO TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

INCREASING WINDS AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS
FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...PLEASE USE CAUTION WHEN WORKING
OR PLAYING NEAR WOODED AREAS EARLY THIS WEEK.

INCREASING COASTAL WINDS AND SEAS WILL PRODUCE AN ELEVATED RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION...THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER OCCUR IN YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

SANDRIK/ZIBURA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

FLZ033-061745-

ST. JOHNS FL-
109 PM EDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY FOR SMALL
HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM WINDS UNTIL 145 PM...

AT 109 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER PALM VALLEY...OR NEAR PONTE VEDRA
BEACH...MOVING SOUTH AT 30 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT
AREAS AROUND PALM VALLEY AND SAWGRASS THROUGH 145 PM EDT. SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

ZIBURA