Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
243 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2007

.SHORT TERM...FOR TODAY...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH
SOUTH GEORGIA. CONVECTION IS ONGOING TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE MODELS INDICATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT BEST
CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE AMPLE AND THERE IS WEAK UPPER
SUPPORT. OTHERWISE WITH NO STRONG FORCING AND WEAK FLOW...EXPECT
TYPICAL PULSE TYPE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...AND ISOLATED STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE OR ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

FOR TOMORROW...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND LIFTS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. SIMILAR TO TODAY...BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT ARE MOST
AMPLE...ALTHOUGH AS ALWAYS STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK FLOW WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH NO STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT. BY THURSDAY A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DECREASING PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE HAVING
TROUBLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THIS THROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE CONSENSUS IS STILL GEARING TOWARDS A MORE
FAVORABLE SET UP FOR A WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TYPE EVENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SUMMER-TIME CONVECTION IS FULL SWING WITH BULK OF
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN...
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THEN BRINGING SOME CONVECTION BACK TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO TSRA GROUPS PRIMARILY FROM 19Z TO 23Z.
THE COMBINATION OF MOIST CONDITIONS AND WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL YET AGAIN PROMOTE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
AROUND 13Z ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. LATEST CHECK OF MARINE OBS INDICATE
LINGERING SWELLS OF 2 TO 3 FEET WITH PERIODICITY AROUND 10 SECONDS.
WINDS/SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TAME THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WEEKEND FORECAST AS MODELS DISAGREE
WITH PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  92  73  90 /  30  50  40  50
SSI  78  88  77  89 /  20  40  30  50
JAX  74  92  75  90 /  30  40  30  50
SGJ  76  89  76  88 /  20  30  20  40
GNV  74  93  73  92 /  30  40  20  40
OCF  73  93  73  93 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HURLBUT/ZAPPE/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
520 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-280750-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
520 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER INTERIOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND MOST OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IS EXPECTED WHICH
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS
TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS. TAKE
SHELTER IF HAZARDOUS WEATHER APPROACHES YOU.

LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES. REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN STALL. DUE TO THE STALLED FRONT
IN THE AREA AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SHASHY

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