Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
915 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

.UPDATE...
LARGE STACKED HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER ALABAMA WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW A SLOW INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH
SFC TO 500 MB FLOW OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WITH A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT ALLOWED SOME ISOLD TSTMS OVER SERN GA THIS
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM/GFS SLOWLY INCREASE MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND
TRY TO CONTINUE ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT BELIEVE
ATMOSPHERE WILL DECOUPLE ENOUGH TO END ACTIVITY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ANOTHER ROUND OF
PATCHY 3-5SM FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING. FOR THURSDAY BOTH THE
18Z NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS COMBINED WITH
WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE SFC TO 500 MB NELY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER SCTD TSTMS OVER SERN GA AND ISOLD TSTMS ACRS NERN
FL...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
CATEGORY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A RANGE OF 92 TO 97
EXPECTED...THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE BUT POSSIBLY IFR
RANGE FOR INLAND TAF SITES 09Z-12Z. WITH PERSISTENCE IN MIND...HAVE
LEANED TOWARD LOWER VIS THAN SUGGESTED BY MAV GUIDANCE BUT BELIEVE
VISIBILITIES WONT BE AS LOW AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING MAINLY DUE TO
LOWER DEWPOINTS NOTED SINCE 24 HOURS AGO...MAINLY ACROSS THE NE FL
ZONES. ALSO...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE TONIGHT WHICH IDEALLY WOULD BE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. AT THIS TIME...NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO SHOW CONVECTION IN TAF SITES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT AT TIMES IN AN EASTERLY SWELL. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE WITH BREAKERS OF 2 TO
3 FEET WITH THE OCCASIONAL 4 FT BREAKERS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HIGH TIDAL PUSH ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  97  73  93 /  20  40  20  50
SSI  78  90  77  89 /  20  30  20  60
JAX  72  94  73  90 /  10  30  20  60
SGJ  74  92  77  87 /   0  20  20  60
GNV  70  95  72  91 /   0  30  20  60
OCF  70  97  73  91 /   0  20  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/SHASHY/KERNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
915 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-231000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
915 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...MAINLY NORTH OF A DOUGLAS TO
BRUNSWICK LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE COMBINATION OF ONSHORE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. REFER TO THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR
MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EFFECTS OF THE HEAT CAN BE MINIMIZED BY
REDUCING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER...AND WEARING
LIGHTWEIGHT LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL/HESS

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