Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
243 PM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007

.SHORT TERM...HEAT INDICES ARE CURRENTLY 110-115 DEG IN SE
GEORGIA AND 102-108 DEG ACRS NE FLORIDA. THE SFC FRONT STRETCHES
OVER CENTRAL GA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO GA/FL BORDER
BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED STORMS THAT
WILL BE ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. RESULTING HEAT
INDICES WILL FALL JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER SUNDAY
WILL STILL BE HOT WITH MAX TEMPS IN LOWER/MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES
WILL BE AROUND 105 DEG. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S IN SE GA AND COASTAL NE FL...WILL NOT EXTEND THE
CURRENT HEAT ADV SINCE ITS LIKELY NOT REQUIRED FOR SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE HAS BEEN DRIFTING OFF THE GA/SC COAST. THE AREA OF STORMS
HAS BEEN WEAKENING BUT VIS SATELLITE SHOWS AN OUTFLOW RACING SWD
TOWARD OUR COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO ASSIST IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. PER RECENT MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION FROM SPC...STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS PM. WET
MICROBURSTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND URBAN/ROAD FLOODING
MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA MONDAY LOWERING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE LOWER 70S WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP HEAT INDICES TO AROUND
100 DEG. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING SKIES WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN
THE AFTN AND WILL GO WITH ONLY A SLGT CHANCE FOR PRECIP PRIMARILY
OVER THE SRN TIER.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS PUSHING
EWD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS FL
AND THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. A TUTT MAY INCREASE PRECIP FOR FL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL UPGRADE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR SSI...JAX AND CRG IF A WATCH IS
ISSUED. OTHERWISE WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH CURRENT TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  95  73  96 /  30  30  20  20
SSI  80  91  78  91 /  40  30  20  10
JAX  77  94  75  93 /  30  40  20  20
SGJ  78  91  77  90 /  30  40  30  20
GNV  76  94  74  93 /  20  50  30  20
OCF  75  94  74  93 /  20  50  30  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/SANDRIK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
552 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-121000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
552 AM EDT SAT AUG 11 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY...
HEAT INDEX READINGS OF 105 TO AROUND 115 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED
TODAY. EFFECTS OF THE HEAT CAN BE MINIMIZED BY REDUCING OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER OR FLUID REPLENISHING
BEVERAGES...AND WEARING LIGHTWEIGHT LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS WILL GENERALLY
MOVE SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. DUE TO THIS SLOW MOTION...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

...HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 SUNDAY...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH HEAT INDICES
NEAR 105 DEGREES.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE WHEN A WARNING IS ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PP

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