Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
248 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007

...SEVERE TSTM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH
9 PM EDT...

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR SO GOOD...WE HAVE A BIT OF CONVECTION FIRING
UP ON AN OLD BOUNDARY IN CHARLTON COUNTY GEORGIA BUT OTHERWISE WE
REMAIN CONVECTION FREE. THAT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SOON AS MARION
COUNTY HAS CLEARED OUT MUCH EARLIER THAN ELSEWHERE AND WE HAVE
GOOD CAPE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE A GOOD LAPSE RATE OVER THE COUNTY WITH THE MOST PRONOUNCED
BOUNDARY BEING THE PRETTY SHARP BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE CLOUD COVERAGE
AND THE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY. BET
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH TEMP CONTRASTS FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THERE
FIRST THIS AFTERNOON. HOPEFULLY ALL OF THE SEVERE STUFF STAYS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT IF I HAD TO BET ID PLACE MY MONEY
ON SOMETHING HAPPENING IN MARION COUNTY.

LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION I HAVE TO ASK...IS THIS JULY?
AS ALMOST LOOKS MORE LIKE A WINTER TIME TYPE PATTERN THAN MID
SUMMER WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH COLD AIR
ALOFT. SO EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND CONVECTION TO BE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PORTION THROUGH MONDAY WHERE THE GREATEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED. AS A RIDGE OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES SHIFTS EAST THE RETURN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE OUT OF THE GULF AND A RETURN TO NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR NEXT WEEK.

IN THE EXTENDED THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADES AND DECAYS
OVER THE MID WEST WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING ITS
SELF ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CONTINUE EXCEPT IN AREAS NEAR STORMS. AS
WINDS SHIFT NE-E... OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING FOR TAF SITES NEAR COAST.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. AS TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO ONSHORE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THEN A RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC SETTING UP SLY FLOW FOR REMAINDER OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  90  66  91 /  30  40  10  20
SSI  74  85  71  85 /  40  50  10  20
JAX  71  87  68  87 /  50  60  20  30
SGJ  74  82  72  84 /  60  70  20  40
GNV  71  87  69  87 /  50  70  30  40
OCF  72  87  69  87 /  50  70  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SANDRIK/TRABERT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1122 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-212200-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1122 AM EDT SAT JUL 21 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL 9 PM EDT...

A COLD FRONT WILL SAG TO NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA LINE TODAY.
THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA. LARGE HAIL
UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

SANDRIK

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