Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
445 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR  APPLING...
ATKINSON...BACON...COFFEE AND JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR BRANTLEY...
PIERCE...WAYNE AND GLYNN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS WELL AS
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
LEAD SHORT-WAVE FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AID IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACRS MARION COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS ALONG WITH NEGATIVE VORT ADVECTION
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT HAS SQUASHED CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. MID 90S
WITH 100-105 HEAT INDICES PREVALENT ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AT 2 PM.

FOR TONIGHT...ALREADY ISSUED WATCH IN CONJUNCTION WITH SPC FOR
PORTIONS OF INLD SERN GA AS TSTM COMPLEX ALONG COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT OF
SVR TSTMS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. LEAD EDGE OF TSTM ACTIVITY
WILL PUSH INTO FORECAST AREA AROUND 6PM AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACRS MUCH OF SERN GA DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO NERN FL BY
MIDNIGHT AND SLOWLY WIND DOWN TOWARD MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
HANGS UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ON SATURDAY...WITH FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE CONVECTION
RE-FIRE BACK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SCTD TSTMS AND THE
THREAT OF ISOLD SVR TSTMS ONCE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A NOTCH
LOWER IN THE LOWER 90S. ON SUNDAY...COLD FRONT WILL WASH OUT ACRS
NERN FL WITH SCTD TSTM ACTIVITY THERE AND ISOLD TSTM IN THE DRIER
AIR UPSTREAM...1000-500MB MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WNW AND
ALLOW FOR WEST COAST SBRZ TO MOVE INLAND. ON MONDAY...MEAN
1000-500MB FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE TSTM ACTIVITY AND POPS SHOULD BE UP AROUND
40-60% ACRS THE FORECAST WITH HIGHEST POPS ACRS NERN FL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
DEEP AND MOIST SW FLOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL COMBINE WITH
LINGERING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO KEEP POPS HIGH AROUND
40-60% AND GULF COAST SBRZ DOMINATE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER
90S AND THE THREAT OF ISOLD SVR WX AS 500MB TEMPS REMAIN IN THE -8
TO -9C RANGE. MEAN 1000-500MB FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS 500MB HIGH TRIES TO RE-BUILD BACK IN
OVER THE FL PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTH. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S WITH POPS NEAR CLIMO IN THE 30-50% RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH DETERIORATING CONDS AFT 23Z. CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO INTERIOR NE GA BY 23Z AND WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH IFR TO LIFR COND IN HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STRONGER STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MARINERS SHOULD USE CAUTION THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  93  70  91 /  40  20  10  40
SSI  75  89  77  85 /  40  30  10  30
JAX  74  92  73  89 /  60  40  10  30
SGJ  75  89  74  86 /  30  40  20  40
GNV  73  91  71  90 /  30  50  30  30
OCF  73  92  72  89 /  20  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

HESS/HURLBUT/KEEGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
337 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

AMZ450-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-
210100-
ALACHUA-ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-
APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN (COASTAL)-
CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-
MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
337 PM EDT FRI JUL 20 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR
APPLING...ATKINSON...BACON...COFFEE AND JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 548 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR
BRANTLEY...PIERCE...WAYNE AND GLYNN COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...
...VERY HOT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 82 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. HEAT INDICES WILL GENERALLY
TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM BRUNSWICK SOUTHWARD TO JACKSONVILLE AND
ST AUGUSTINE.

OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEA BREEZE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING LOCALLY
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A COOL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
LEAD TO INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA.
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGEST OF THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IN THE EVENT WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR YOUR AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

ZAPPE

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