Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
148 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

.SHORT TERM...UPSTREAM UPPER TROF AND A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE
TEAMING UP WITH 3500 J/KG CAPES TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ACROSS NE FL AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER SE GA. IT APPEARS
EARLY CONVECTION WAS AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION (PVA). SLIGHTLY COOLER 500 MB TEMPS AND MORE SFC HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW SE GA TO FILL IN WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. GREATEST THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE GUSTY
WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT TO
CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING. RAINFALL THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AS
STORMS REACH THE COAST AND ENCOUNTER S TO SE LOW-LEVEL WINDS.

PVA AXIS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING MOSTLY
SE OF A KJAX TO KGNV LINE...WITH OTHER ACTIVITY SLOWLY COMING TO
AN END WITH A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

UPPER TROF TO OUR W IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE W OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS WITH AN UPPER HIGH BUILDING W FROM THE ATLC. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW POPS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY...BUT STILL EXPECT HIGH
END SCATTERED POPS FOR SUN. PATTERN SHOULD BE SIMILAR WITH SW FLOW
SPREADING CONVECTION FROM THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
MID TO LATE MORNING. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SE FOR MON...
WITH CONVECTION LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTN AND FOCUSING OVER
THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...LATEST GFS MOS WAS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...SO
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED PACKAGE. TEMPS AND POPS
NEAR NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAVE GONE WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY WITH
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL AROUND 22Z. IN ADDITION...HAVE INCLUDED WIND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. OTHERWISE VFR...EXCEPT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR BETWEEN 08Z-12Z
DUE TO FOG.

&&

.MARINE...FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAIN CONCERN
THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME WILL BE STRONG PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS JUST  NORTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA ADVANCES TO NORTH
OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK. RESULT WILL BE FOR WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHEAST.
SEAS UPWARDS OF 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  91  71  93 /  50  60  30  30
SSI  76  87  77  89 /  60  40  40  30
JAX  73  91  72  91 /  50  60  30  50
SGJ  74  88  75  88 /  70  50  50  40
GNV  72  90  72  91 /  60  50  40  60
OCF  72  90  72  92 /  60  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

CARROLL/PETERSON/SHASHY/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
920 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO
A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THIS AFTERNOON LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL OCCUR AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG AND POSSIBLY
DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL AS HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MZ/CARROLL

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