Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

.SHORT TERM...WIDE BELT OF SUBTROPICAL HIGHS CURRENTLY EXTEND
FROM THE 4 CORNERS REGION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH A FAIRLY
VIGOROUS VORTEX EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO CANADA. ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO EXTEND ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TOWARDS CENTRAL
GEORGIA...WITH SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THESE FEATURES CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOUTHWEST FLOW
REGIME... WITH A DOMINANT GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. IN FACT...ISOLATED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN WESTERN MARION COUNTY...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE.

GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MEAN LAYER RIDGE...ACTIVITY THROUGH
THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED. FOCUS AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN COUNTIES DUE TO PREVAILING
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SEA-BREEZE COLLISION LIKELY NEAR THE I-95
CORRIDOR. WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL LIKELY HOLD FIRM OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO APPROACH INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WEDNESDAY EVENING. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN LIMITED UNTIL THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE...THUS HAVE CAPPED POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
OF JAX CWA FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH 30-40 PERCENT POPS FOR EXTREME
NORTHWEST SECTION FOR MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY WITH
ARRIVAL OF THIS SHORTWAVE.

AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL ENSUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES...RESULTING IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THIS COUPLED WITH MYRIAD LIFTING
MECHANISMS WILL PROVIDE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (SAT THRU TUE)...
MEAN LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SATURDAY WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY LIKELY STALLING
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND ALABAMA (BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT POSITION ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS). THESE FEATURES COUPLED
WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING BOTH THE DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. WILL INCLUDE AROUND 50 PERCENT
POPS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...HOWEVER HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED IF FRONTAL
POSITION STALLS OVER LOCAL CWA.

SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AS UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING WEST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL INCLUDE LOW-END CHANCE POPS DUE TO WEAK
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES COUPLED WITH DECREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
AN EASTERLY WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND THIS FEATURE WILL MAINLY INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ON
MONDAY.

MONDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE
EAST...WITH EASTERLY WAVE ADVANCING WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF.
DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE
WILL YET AGAIN BRING CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR FLORIDA ZONES.

TUESDAY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY POSITION NORTH
OF THE AREA...WITH DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS...WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE LIKELY ACROSS OUR INTERIOR ZONES AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO A DOMINANT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXCEPT FOR ISOLD TSTMS PSBL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 01Z.
FOG WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT FOR SOME 6SM BR PSBL AT KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS AS RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND REPEAT
PERFORMANCE EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK
AT 3 TO 4 FT EACH NIGHT WITH SWLY SURGE...OTHERWISE SEAS OF 2 TO 3
FT EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SURF ZONE...LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AS WILL FEEBLE
SURF WITH MOSTLY 1 FT OR LESS WITH THE OCCASIONAL 2 FT SURF WITH THE
INCOMING TIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  95  74  93 /  20  40  20  30
SSI  79  92  76  92 /  20  20  20  30
JAX  75  94  74  95 /  20  20  20  40
SGJ  76  92  76  92 /  20  20  10  40
GNV  73  95  73  94 /  10  20  10  40
OCF  73  95  73  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ZAPPE/HESS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
455 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-111000-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
455 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE MORE ISOLATED OVER FAR NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL...STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

PLW

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