Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
223 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW OVER THE N MS VALLEY HAS STALLED AND BEGUN
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGE FOLDS OVER THE TOP OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER FLOW S
OF THESE FEATURES HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL OVER THE PAST 24
HRS. LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE EVER SINCE THE
CONVECTIVE TEMP WAS REACHED EARLIER THIS AFTN. TEMPS CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER THE EXTREME N TO THE UPPER 70S OVER
THE S. S TO SW WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
30 TO 35 MPH. UPSTREAM SQUALL LINE HAS NOT BECOME ANY MORE
ORGANIZED OVER LAND...ALTHO TSTMS CONTINUE TO FIRE OVER THE NE
GOMEX.

.SHORT TERM...WITH UPPER SUPPORT SHIFTING NE AND WEAKENING...MOST
ORGANIZED CONVECTION STILL PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO SPLIT AS IS
OFTEN THE CASE OVER OUR AREA. STILL APPEARS TO BE ENUF INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE ISOLD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A TSTM AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ARE STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS OVER 40 KTS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLD TORNADO. THINK THE MOST
LIKELY SVR CONVECTION IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL BE OVER THE
EXTREME N ZONES AND THE EXTREME S. OUR CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK..ALTHO CONVECTION MAY COMPLETELY FALL APART
BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE E COAST.

AS FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL...NOT GREAT PUSH TO GET THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM CLEANLY THRU THE AREA. GFS STILL SLOWER AND WETTER WITH
FCST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS...MAINLY WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT
JUST N OF THE STALLING FRONT. HAVE ONCE AGAIN BLENDED THE GFS AND
NAM TO GET MAINLY ISOLD PRECIP OVER OUR S ZONES. MOS TEMPS IN SOME
DISAGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT HAVE BLENDED THIS
DATA AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY...BUT
THERE ARE STILL SOME RATHER WILD FLUCTUATIONS IN TEMPS FROM RUN TO
RUN. HOPEFULLY THESE DISCREPANCIES WILL LESSEN WITH THE NEXT FEW
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...SSW GUSTS TO 25 KT CONTINUE AT ALL SITE IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
WITH BKN030-040 EXPECTED AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CWA TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS ARE VERIFYING QUITE WELL ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTN WITH BUOY 41012 REPORTING S WINDS
21G27KT. SGJ C-MAN REPORTING SSW 20 KTS. PLAN ON CONTINUING SCA FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH SCEC NEARSHORE.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT INTO MON AS FRONT BEGINS
TO STALL TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N AND E OF THE AREA
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED UNTIL LATE THU IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE WX WATCH FOR N FL ON MON DUE TO LOW RH LOOKS
MARGINAL AS DURATIONS OF ONLY 1-2 HRS OF SUB-CRITICAL RHS LOOK
POSSIBLE NOW. WILL LET THE MID SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT THE NEXT MODEL
CYCLE AND DETERMINE IF WATCH NEEDS TO BE DROPPED OR UPGRADED TO A
MARGINAL RFW EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  48  72  45  72 /  30   0   0   0
SSI  53  68  52  71 /  30   0   0   0
JAX  55  74  52  76 /  30  10  10   0
SGJ  60  72  58  74 /  30  10  10   0
GNV  56  74  54  76 /  40  10  20   0
OCF  58  74  56  76 /  50  20  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH MONDAY AFTN FOR BAKER-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

CARROLL/ENYEDI/HURLBUT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-261100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
1100 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN A
NARROW SQUALL LINE WITH ISOLATED STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. OTHER...
MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
LINE THIS AFTERNOON. MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE EAST AT
35 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORMS...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY DUE TO LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF-ACTIVATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MZ/SEC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
412 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

GAZ162-252145-
ECHOLS-
412 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ECHOLS COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 445 PM EST...

AT 412 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
CENTERED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MAYDAY...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF
STATENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND
MAYDAY THROUGH 445 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
424 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

GAZ135-252215-
APPLING-
424 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN APPLING
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 515 PM EST...

AT 424 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SURRENCY...OR 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF ALMA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND SURRENCY THROUGH 515 PM
EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS
STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
439 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

GAZ136-252230-
WAYNE-
439 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WAYNE COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS AND FUNNEL CLOUDS VALID UNTIL 530 PM EST...

AT 439 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 7 MILES WEST OF ODUM...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SURRENCY...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND ODUM...JESUP AND
DOCTORTOWN THROUGH 530 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. DOPPLER RADAR HAS
INDICATED WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. TORNADOES MAY DEVELOP
WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

ENYEDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
449 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

GAZ150-252215-
WARE-
449 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WARE COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 515 PM EST...

AT 449 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER CLINCH COUNTY...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF
ARGYLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND THROUGH 515 PM EST. GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

PETERSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
451 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

FLZ035-252230-
GILCHRIST-
451 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GILCHRIST COUNTY
FOR STRONG WINDS VALID UNTIL 530 PM EST...

AT 451 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 10 MILES WEST OF TRENTON...OR ABOUT 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF CROSS CITY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND TRENTON THROUGH 530 PM
EST. GUSTY WINDS OF NEAR 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
MINOR WIND DAMAGE.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

SHASHY