Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
904 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2007

.UPDATE... A SWATH OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER THE PANHANDLE EWD ALONG
I-10 CORRIDOR AND GA/FL BORDER IS SPILLING OVER A RIDGE IN THE
GULF AND IS MOSTLY DEBRIS FROM STORMS LAST NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE
SLOWLY DISSIPATING BUT NEVERTHELESS WILL INHIBIT HEATING
SOMEWHAT. MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE OUTER BANKS TO EAST OF
OUR OFFSHORE WATERS THEN TURNS BACK ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. THE
SURFACE FRONT STRETCHES ACRS CENTRAL GA. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY AS IT SAGS SOUTH AND SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT HOPEFULLY THIS WILL BE A MINOR
INCONVENIENCE SINCE THE REGION NEEDS THE RAIN. HAVE DONE MINOR
TWEAKING OF GRIDS...LOWERED POPS FOR MORNING HOURS ONLY AND
ADJUSTED TEMPS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AT NEXT ISSUANCE WILL ADJUST PROB30 FOR TS SINCE WILL
KNOW MORE ABOUT TIMING OF CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...MOSTLY QUIESCENT CONDITIONS EXIST ON THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3 FT AT THE BUOYS EXCEPT SABSOON TOWER
(R2) HAS REPORTED 4-5 FT. SINCE ST. AUGUSTINE BUOY IS OUT OF
COMMISSION...ANTICIPATE SEAS ARE 4-5 FT IN THAT AREA. HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO WINDS/SEAS IN GRIDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  71  88  71 /  50  40  50  30
SSI  88  76  83  75 /  50  30  50  30
JAX  92  74  87  72 /  40  30  70  30
SGJ  89  75  85  75 /  40  30  70  30
GNV  94  71  90  73 /  40  40  60  30
OCF  93  72  90  74 /  50  30  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

TRABERT/MCALLISTER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
945 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-021100-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
945 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE
AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A SLOW STORM MOTION WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS...HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MIDWEEK. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

MKT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
123 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2007

FLZ024-011815-
NASSAU-
123 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2007

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NASSAU COUNTY FOR
STRONG WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING VALID UNTIL 215 PM
EDT...

AT 123 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 5 MILES SOUTH OF HILLIARD...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO
AFFECT AREAS AROUND HILLIARD...RATLIFF...CALLAHAN AND BRYCEVILLE
THROUGH 215 PM EDT. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR DAMAGE. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS IN SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY
WESTOF RATLIFF. THIS STORM MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

WOLF

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