Red Flag Warning 85, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS...

OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WASHING OUT ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE THE
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SOME CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. SOME OF THOSE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WILL GO WITH
POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GFS MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE IT WILL
REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGIONS WITH PORTIONS OF THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY APPROACHING 100 THIS AFTERNOON. GFS IS INDICATING
THE JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA MAY SEE 3.96 INCHES OF RAIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS MY LAWN IS SUFFERING FROM MAJOR CAMEL
INFESTATION I WOULD LIKE TO BELIEVE THE MODEL BUT AT THIS TIME
WILL HAVE THE RAINFALL. STILL TWO INCHES WOULD BE NICE IF WE CAN
REALIZE EVEN THAT AMOUNT IF GFS IS TO BE BELIEVED WE MIGHT SEE
SIX TO EIGHT INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT TEN
DAYS WITHOUT ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM TO TAP GULF MOISTURE. THINK THAT
IS PRETTY GENEROUS FOR A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO NORMAL DIURNAL
CONVECTION. THAT SAID THIS IS ONE TIME WHERE I WOULD REALLY LIKE TO
BE WRONG

&&

.AVIATION...FOUS FOG TOOL IS HANDILY BEATING MOS THIS MORNING IN
THE JAX METRO AREA AS VSBYS HAVE DROPPED PERIODICALLY BELOW 2 MILES
AT KCRG AND ARE SOLIDLY BELOW 1 MILE AT KJAX. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
BE PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING NEAR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE ATLC COAST. WILL LIKELY BEEF UP POPS
A BIT WITH 12Z TAF ISSUANCE AND INDICATE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS IN
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE ON THU. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DUE TO VERY WARM TEMPS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE
DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SFC THIS AFTN...HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WX
WATCH OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO A RED FLAG WARNING. DEW POINTS
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 40S ON SUN AND VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AT LEAST TO 60 THIS AFTN. DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE EXPANSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  70  88  68 /  30  40  60  40
SSI  87  74  83  71 /  30  30  70  50
JAX  90  70  86  69 /  30  20  60  50
SGJ  88  73  84  71 /  30  20  60  60
GNV  94  69  90  70 /  30  20  50  50
OCF  93  70  91  70 /  30  20  40  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR BAKER-
     COLUMBIA-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-UNION.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

SANDRIK/CARROLL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1145 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-111000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
1145 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.HEADLINES...

...HIGH FIRE DANGER DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE A HIGH FIRE
DANGER ESPECIALLY OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH OF GAINESVILLE. MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AS STORMS MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE MONDAY AND INFLUENCE OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO
BE INCREASING FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
CONCERN AT THIS TIME. FUTURE FORECASTS WILL REFINE THE AREA OF
CONCERN AS WELL AS THE COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

MKT/JTD