Red Flag Warning 37, NWS Jacksonville, FL

000 
WWUS82 KJAX 191818
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
218 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2007

FLZ020>023-030-031-035-036-192200-
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0037.000000T0000Z-070319T2200Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-
218 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY...

LINGERING DRY AIR WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO
AROUND 25 TO 30 PERCENT OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE DURATION OF HUMIDITIES BELOW 35
PERCENT WILL BE AROUND 4 TO 5 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER
INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/FIREWX.SHTML.

$$

MKT

000 
WWUS82 KJAX 192202
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
602 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2007

FLZ020>023-030-031-035-036-192315-
/O.EXP.KJAX.FW.W.0037.000000T0000Z-070319T2200Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-
602 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...


THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 AM EDT MON MAR 19 2007

...VERY LIMITED RAIN PROSPECTS THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS COAST WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. SINCE MIDNIGHT...THIS HAS BEEN
CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA ZONES
WHILE FURTHER INLAND AND OVER GEORGIA...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
DECOUPLED WITH MOSTLY CALM WINDS BEING REPORTED. AS A
RESULT...GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ONGOING AND ONLY A 4 DEGREE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION EXISTS WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 40S. WITH A FEW MORE DEGREES TO DROP PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP WHERE THE WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...NOT MUCH FANFARE IN STORE AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
PROMOTING MORE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. LOOKING AT
THE MOISTURE PROFILE FOR TODAY...CROSS SECTIONS SHOW AND AREA OF
INCREASING MOISTURE BETWEEN 950 MB AND 800 MB MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO SOME AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT INLAND BUT REMAIN GENERALLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.

FOR TONIGHT AND TUE NIGHT...AREAS OF FOG LOOK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH WHERE
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL EXIST. CURRENT GRIDS HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM BUT ANY
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE SWIFT FLOW WILL BE UNABLE TO PRODUCE
ANY PRECIP GIVEN CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH A RETURN TO THE MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS BY THU.

.LONG TERM...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES STATES AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY. BY
WED NIGHT INTO THU...RIDGING WILL BUILD DOWN THE ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST THROUGH WEEKS
END BEFORE NORTHEAST FLOW TRANSITIONS TO EASTERLY ONCE AGAIN. NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL NOT BE UNTIL AFTER THIS FORECAST CYCLE WITH
EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATING A FRONT APPROACHING TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY WITH ELY WINDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 10-12 KT THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASED CIRRUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. IN
ADDITION...SOME FEW-SCT STRATO CU POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY S
OF A JAX-GNV LINE.

&&

.MARINE...NE TO E WINDS AROUND 8-12 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. ANTICIPATE
SFC RIDGE FROM CAROLINAS TO COASTAL SE GA TO BECOME ORIENTED W-E
ACROSS SE GA WATERS AND WELL E INTO ATLC ...THUS PROVIDING WEAKER
WINDS BY 12Z TUE. A BACKDOOR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN INTO THE
CAROLINAS TUE EVENING AND WITH SFC RIDGE BEING ABSORBED BY STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONGER PRES GRADIENT SETS UP
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU WITH SCA LIKELY BY WED. SURF BREAKERS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE INTO THE 4-6 FT RANGE LATE WED AS WELL...WITH HIGH SURF
ADVY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTER ADJUSTING LATEST GRIDS WITH 00Z GUIDANCE
DECIDED TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A WARNING EXCEPT FOR MARION
COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE HIGHER. CURRENT GRIDS DONT SUPPORT
ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR TUE AS PREVAILING ENE FLOW SHOULD CONT
TO ADVECT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  45  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  65  52  71  55 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  68  49  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  66  55  70  58 /   0  10  10   0
GNV  71  48  77  52 /   0  10  10   0
OCF  72  50  77  54 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

DEESE/SHASHY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-191000-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
920 PM EDT SUN MAR 18 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY OF NORTH FLORIDA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MORNING FOG.

THERE WILL BE A HIGHER THAN NORMAL FIRE DANGER MONDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ECZ/PP