Alert archive / Georgia / Red Flag Warnings in 2007

Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Jacksonville, FL

February 17, 200712 counties in Georgia; 7 counties in Florida

NWS Jacksonville, FL issued this red flag warning at Feb 17, 2007, 2:29 AM EST for 12 counties in Georgia; 7 counties in Florida. It took effect at Feb 17, 2007, 2:35 PM EST. It was in force for 28 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 17, 2007, 2:29 AM EST (07:29 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 17, 2007, 2:35 PM EST
Expired
Feb 18, 2007, 7:00 PM EST
In force
28 hr
Issued by
NWS Jacksonville, FL

Counties Baker County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Gilchrist County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Suwannee County, FL, Union County, FL, Appling County, GA, Atkinson County, GA, Bacon County, GA, Brantley County, GA, Camden County, GA, Clinch County, GA, Coffee County, GA, Echols County, GA, Glynn County, GA, Jeff Davis County, GA, Pierce County, GA, Wayne County, GA

The nearest sounding before it

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), launched 00:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 69 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 00:00Z on 2007-02-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 00:00Z on 2007-02-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -40 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156175Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2439 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
101 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
150 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS82 KJAX 170729
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
229 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-172200-
/O.UPG.KJAX.FW.A.0020.070218T1700Z-070218T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.FW.W.0017.070218T1600Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.FW.A.0022.070219T1600Z-070220T0000Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0016.070217T1500Z-070217T2300Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
229 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR LOW 
HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY WINDS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS CONTINUED THE RED
FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. 
A RED FLAG WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT MONDAY.

TODAY...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW 35% BY MID-MORNING...WITH DURATIONS
BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR 6-8 HOURS TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
AROUND 20%. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO
AROUND 15 MPH AT TIMES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A
FAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL FUNNEL OVER THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. 

MONDAY...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35% BY MONDAY 
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA FOR 6-8 HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED IN FLORIDA WHEN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE CONSECUTIVE HOURS...OR WHEN
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT IN COMBINATION
WITH SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 15 MPH OR MORE.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD
OF THESE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

$$

GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-172200-
/O.UPG.KJAX.FW.A.0019.070217T1700Z-070217T2200Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.FW.A.0021.070218T1700Z-070218T2300Z/
/O.EXB.KJAX.FW.W.0016.070217T1600Z-070217T2200Z/
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
229 AM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW HUMIDITIES
AND BREEZY WINDS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
EST THIS AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR
SUNDAY. 

TODAY...A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW 25% BY MID-MORNING...WITH
DURATIONS BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR 6-8 HOURS TODAY WITH MINIMUM
VALUES AROUND 15-20%. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 MPH AT TIMES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A
FAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL FUNNEL OVER THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN. LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. 

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS ISSUED IN GEORGIA WHEN MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE CONSECUTIVE
HOURS...OR WHEN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS MAY REACH OR EXCEED 20
MPH OR CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25 MPH OR HIGHER.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE FIELD
OF THESE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

$$

ENYEDI
7 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS82 KJAX 171935
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-172200-
/O.UPG.KJAX.FW.A.0021.070218T1700Z-070218T2300Z/
/O.EXB.KJAX.FW.W.0017.070218T1700Z-070218T2300Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070217T2200Z/
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
235 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES AND STRONG WINDS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY HOLD BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT THROUGH 5
PM EST. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUSTAIN NEAR 15 MPH AT TIMES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING
A FAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL FUNNEL OVER
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN FOR EXTENDED DURATIONS WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THUS...A
RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THESE RED FLAG WARNINGS. 

$$

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-172300-
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070217T2300Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0017.070218T1600Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.A.0022.070219T1600Z-070220T0000Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
235 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES AND 
STRONG WINDS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SAME AREA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO
7 PM EST SUNDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUING BELOW 35 PERCENT THROUGH 6
PM...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMDIITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN NEAR 15
MPH AT TIMES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING
A FAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL FUNNEL OVER
THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN FOR EXTENDED DURATIONS WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA FOR 6-8 HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THESE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

$$
ECZ
000 
WWUS82 KJAX 172222
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
522 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-181030-
/O.EXP.KJAX.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070217T2200Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0017.070218T1700Z-070218T2300Z/
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
522 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR TODAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

FOR SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOLLOWING A FAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN FOR EXTENDED DURATIONS WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THUS...A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-172330-
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070217T2300Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0017.070218T1600Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.A.0022.070219T1600Z-070220T0000Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
522 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...

A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUING BELOW 35 PERCENT THROUGH
6 PM...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 20 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE NEAR 15 MPH AT
TIMES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

FOR SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOLLOWING A FAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR EXTENDED DURATIONS WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA FOR 6 TO 8 HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THESE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

$$

CARROLL
000 
WWUS82 KJAX 172308
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
608 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-181115-
/O.EXP.KJAX.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-070217T2300Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0017.070218T1600Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.A.0022.070219T1600Z-070220T0000Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
608 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR TODAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
SUNDAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

FOR SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOLLOWING A FAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR EXTENDED DURATIONS WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA FOR 6 TO 8 HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THESE RED FLAG WARNINGS AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

$$

GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-181115-
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0017.070218T1700Z-070218T2300Z/
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
608 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST
SUNDAY...

FOR SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FOLLOWING A FAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN FOR EXTENDED DURATIONS WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. THUS...A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE COMBINATION OF
GUSTY WINDS AND VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE
GROWTH POTENTIAL.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

CARROLL
000 
WWUS82 KJAX 180741
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

FLZ020>025-030>032-035>037-040-182200-
/O.UPG.KJAX.FW.A.0022.070219T1600Z-070220T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.FW.W.0018.070219T1600Z-070220T0000Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0017.070218T1600Z-070219T0000Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-MARION-
241 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR 
LOW HUMIDITIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS CONTINUED THE RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT FOR TODAY.

TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A
FAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN FOR 4 TO 7 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA FOR 6 TO 8 HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED IN FLORIDA WHEN MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT IN COMBINATION WITH SUSTAINED
20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 15 MPH OR MORE...OR WHEN MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE CONSECUTIVE
HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THESE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

FLZ033-038-182200-
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0017.070218T1600Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.A.0022.070219T1600Z-070220T0000Z/
ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-
241 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITIES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 

TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A
FAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

MONDAY...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED IN FLORIDA WHEN MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT IN COMBINATION WITH SUSTAINED
20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 15 MPH OR MORE...OR WHEN MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE CONSECUTIVE
HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

$$

GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-182200-
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0017.070218T1700Z-070218T2300Z/
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
241 AM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON FOR BREEZY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON. 

TODAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING A
FAST FRONTAL PASSAGE. A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA ONCE AGAIN. CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED
IN CONCERT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED IN GEORGIA WHEN SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS REACH OR EXCEED 20 MPH OR CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25 MPH OR
HIGHER AND SURFACE FUELS ARE DRY.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

ENYEDI
000 
WWUS82 KJAX 181850
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
150 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

FLZ033-038-190000-
/O.UPG.KJAX.FW.A.0022.070219T1600Z-070220T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KJAX.FW.W.0018.070219T1600Z-070220T0000Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-070219T0000Z/
ST JOHNS-FLAGLER-
150 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA FOR LOW RH VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY 
FOR INLAND SECTIONS OF ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES
FOR LOW RH VALUES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR INLAND SECTIONS OF ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ENTIRE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED IN FLORIDA WHEN MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT IN COMBINATION WITH
SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 15 MPH OR MORE...OR WHEN MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE
CONSECUTIVE HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING AND FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

$$

FLZ020>025-030>032-035>037-040-190000-
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0018.070219T1600Z-070220T0000Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-MARION-
150 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES AND STRONG WINDS...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.
A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY.

CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 25 PERCENT. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA FOR 6 TO 8 HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED IN FLORIDA WHEN MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT IN COMBINATION WITH
SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS OF 15 MPH OR MORE...OR WHEN MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE
CONSECUTIVE HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THESE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-182300-
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-070218T2300Z/
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
150 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DUE TO LOW RH VALUES AND
GUSTY WINDS...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 25 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED IN
CONCERT WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 MPH.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED IN GEORGIA WHEN SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS REACH OR EXCEED 20 MPH OR CONSISTENTLY GUST TO 25 MPH OR
HIGHER AND SURFACE FUELS ARE DRY.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.

$$
ECZ
000 
WWUS82 KJAX 182309
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
609 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-190015-
/O.EXP.KJAX.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-070218T2300Z/
COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-
BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-
INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
609 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

$$

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-190015-
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0018.070219T1600Z-070220T0000Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
609 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
7 PM THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 15 MPH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MONDAY...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNINGS.

$$

CARROLL
000 
WWUS82 KJAX 190014
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
714 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-191215-
/O.EXP.KJAX.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-070219T0000Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0018.070219T1600Z-070220T0000Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
714 PM EST SUN FEB 18 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR TODAY...
...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

MONDAY...A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING AWAY FROM THE COAST FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS IN THE
FIELD OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.

$$

CARROLL

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Feb 16, 7:50 PM EST, 6 hours 39 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 16, 7:50 PM EST, 6 hours 39 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
750 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2007

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH HARD FREEZE
CONDITIONS INLAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS...

.UPDATE...TEMPERATURES FALLING QUICKLY THROUGH THE 40S AS WINDS
DROP OFF. WILL UPDATE ZONES AND LOWER TONIGHTS WIND SPEEDS AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER WEAKENS WITH APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH TO
THE WEST. FREEZE WARNING LOOKS GOOD WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO START AFTER 10 PM.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF MOVES EAST. WILL LET SCA EXPIRE AND
REPLACE WITH SCEC.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

MZ/SC

......PREVIOUS DISCUSSION......

.SHORT TERM...A VERY DRY AND COLD AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER
THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING THROUGH THE 40S THIS EARLY
AFTERNOON. VERY STRONG JET CORE REMAINS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA
WITH OVER 160 KNOTS OF WESTERLY FLOW. AT THE MID LEVELS...A
STRONG SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT MOISTURE IS TOO
LOW TO RESULT IN ANY CLOUDS.

PRETTY MUCH JUST A TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT AND A VERY COLD ONE
AT THAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD WITH RIDGE AXIS
STRETCHING THROUGH THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND OFF THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL STILL PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS...THE
HIGH POSITION IS FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND SOME LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GEORGIA PORTION.
IN ADDITION...AN 850 MB TROUGH WILL ACTUALLY BE PRESENT OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH WESTERLY FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS OVER OUR AREA.
TYPICALLY...WITH OUR BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHTS...WE SEE FLOW
ABOVE THE SURFACE LESS THAN THIS. SO FOR THESE REASONS...IT IS A
LITTLE UN-SETTLING TO SEE SUCH LOW NUMBERS FROM THE MAV...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS TRACK RECORD THIS WINTER. I STILL SEE NO
REASON WHY WE WONT EXPERIENCE A FREEZE AREA WIDE...BUT HARD
FREEZE CONDITIONS MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FIRST THOUGHT. WILL
IN GENERAL...WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE THE GUIDANCE VALUES
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NO CHANGES TO CURRENT WARNING CONFIGURATION.

MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE FIRST PART OF SAT BUT
CONTINUED SEASONABLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 50S
OVER MOST AREAS. THERE WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE TO 850 MB TROUGH TO
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION WHICH MAY BRING SOME 5K FT CLOUDS TO THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS LATE IN THE DAY.

YET ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES IN SAT EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUN WITH UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FEATURE WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE THE LIMITING
FACTOR AND WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS
FROM THE MOISTURE FIELDS AND THE NOMOGRAMS THAT THE PRECIP FIELD
WILL STAY JUST AHEAD OF THE CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES FOR THIS
EVENT BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY FOR MIXED PRECIP
POTENTIAL.

BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE YET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING ANOTHER POSSIBLE FREEZE FOR MONDAY
MORNING. PLAN RIGHT NOW IS TO SEE HOW THIS FREEZE VERIFIES BEFORE
ISSUING ANOTHER WATCH FOR THE MON EVENT.

.LONG TERM...MODERATING AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. GFS AND DGEX IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WED INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH ARND 23Z. STRONG SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE RUNNING 5-6 FT. MAX WIND GUSTS ARE STILL 25 KT
AT ST. AUGUSTINE BUOY. CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASE RAPIDLY SATURDAY EVENING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STRONG SW WINDS SHIFT TO NW. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE GALES ON SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT EVNG
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BEFORE SEAS
SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONLY CHANGE TO HEADLINES IS TO ADD REMAINING GA
COUNTIES TO FWW SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE A BAND OF CLOUDS
MOVING THRU SATURDAY MAY KEEP TEMPS LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT RHS
FROM FALLING TO 25 PCT IN GA SO WILL NOT UPGRADE TO A WARNING.
RH SHOULD EASILY BE BELOW 35 PCT IN NE FL FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND
WILL KEEP RFW GOING. VERY DRY CONDITIONS CONT SUNDAY BUT BY MONDAY
THE ONSHORE MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL RH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  26  57  32  53 /   0   0  20   0
SSI  32  54  36  51 /   0   0  20   0
JAX  26  58  37  53 /   0   0  20   0
SGJ  32  57  40  55 /   0   0  10   0
GNV  26  59  37  56 /   0   0  10   0
OCF  25  59  39  56 /   0   0  20   0

&&
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 16, 8:02 PM EST, 6 hours 27 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
802 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-171100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
802 PM EST FRI FEB 16 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE AREA FROM 10 PM THIS
EVENING TO 9 AM SATURDAY MORNING ...

...A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY ACROSS INLAND AREAS TONIGHT...

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A
HARD FREEZE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.

MORE DETAILS ON THE FREEZE IS CONTAINED IN THE URGENT WEATHER
MESSAGE THAT HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A FREEZE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER CANADIAN AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA.

CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY MID
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

PP/JTD/MZ

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jacksonville, FL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 17, 2:29 AM ESTFire Weather WatchJAXAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Brantley, Camden, Clinch and 6 more12 hr
Feb 17, 2:29 AM ESTFire Weather WatchJAXBaker, Bradford, Flagler, Gilchrist, Nassau, Suwannee and 1 more35 hr
Feb 17, 5:32 AM ESTFreeze WatchJAXBaker, Bradford, Gilchrist, Nassau, Suwannee, Union51 hr
Feb 17, 10:29 AM ESTMarine Weather StatementJAX38 hr

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Georgia, 2007Red Flag Warnings in Florida, 2007Every red flag warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.