Red Flag Warning 1, NWS Jacksonville, FL

000 
WWUS82 KJAX 091005
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
505 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007

FLZ020>023-030-031-035-036-040-092300-
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0001.070109T1700Z-070109T2300Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.A.0002.070110T1700Z-070110T2300Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-
MARION-
505 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RH VALUES AND WINDS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW 
RH VALUES...

DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION SUSTAINED NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL APPROACH 15 TO 20
MPH AT TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

DRIER AIR WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 3 TO
5 HOURS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 25 AND 30 PERCENT
ARE EXPECTED.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE COMBINATION OF
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/FIREWX.SHTML.

$$

FLZ024-025-032-033-037-038-092300-
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0001.070109T1700Z-070109T2300Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-CLAY-ST JOHNS-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-
505 AM EST TUE JAN 9 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RH VALUES AND WINDS...

DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 TO 6 HOURS.
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES NEAR 25 PERCENT ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL APPROACH 15 TO 20 MPH AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. THE COMBINATION OF
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE RAPID FIRE GROWTH
POTENTIAL.

FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/FIREWX.SHTML.

$$

ARS

000 
WWUS82 KJAX 091850 AAA
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
150 PM EST TUE JAN 9 2007

FLZ020>023-030-031-035-036-040-092300-
/O.UPG.KJAX.FW.A.0002.070110T1700Z-070110T2300Z/
/O.NEW.KJAX.FW.W.0002.070110T1700Z-070110T2300Z/
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070109T2300Z/
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-UNION-BRADFORD-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-
MARION-
150 PM EST TUE JAN 9 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RHS...
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY
DUE TO LOW RHS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ON WEDNESDAY...DRY AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 3 TO 5 HOURS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 25 TO 30 PERCENT.

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED IN FLORIDA WHEN MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR FOUR OR MORE CONSECUTIVE
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/FIREWX.SHTML.

$$

FLZ024-025-032-033-037-038-092300-
/O.CON.KJAX.FW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070109T2300Z/
NASSAU-DUVAL-CLAY-ST JOHNS-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-
150 PM EST TUE JAN 9 2007

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO LOW RHS...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH WEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/FIREWX.SHTML.

$$

HESS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
150 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007

...COLDER WEATHER MAKES RETURN VISIT BRINGING BRIEF BOUT OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD UPPER TROF COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US WITH
NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE FROM THE PAC AND N MEXICO ACROSS THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA). AT THE SFC...COLD FROM HAS JUST EXITED
THE AREA...FOLLOWED BY A NARROW SWATH OF LOW CLOUDINESS. CLEARING
SKIES ARE GENERALLY NW OF A KBQK TO KCTY LINE AND MAKING GOOD
PROGRESS THRU THE AREA. PRECIP HAS NEARLY ENDED EXCEPT FOR SOME
PESKY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE EXTREME SE CWA.

.SHORT TERM...WHAT IS LEFT OF PRECIP AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST WILL THEN SHIFT TO MIN TEMPS. WEAK SFC
RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SETTLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W GOMEX
COAST TONIGHT...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOST OF THE NIGHT POSSIBLY
GIVING WAY TO SOME BRIEF RADIATIONAL COOLING TOWARD DAYBREAK...
ESPECIALLY OVER W ZONES. HAVE FCST MIN TEMPS IN THE MID 30S OVER
EXTREME N AND IN SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL ENTER THE AREA TUE NIGHT AS
A STRONGER SFC HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE S MS VALLEY. ALTHO MORE COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD BE FAR
ENUF NW OF THE AREA TO KEEP WINDS FROM DECOUPLING. SO...FOR NOW...
IT APPEARS MIN TEMPS WED MORNING WILL DROP A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW
FREEZING OVER THE INTERIOR. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WRT DURATION OF
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING...WILL HOLD OFF ONE MORE FCST CYCLE BEFORE
ISSUING ANY WATCHES...BUT WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO.

.LONG TERM...HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TEMP AND POP ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
EXTENDED PACKAGE. STILL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY DRY AND WARM PERIOD
AFTER THE SHORT TERM COLD SNAP. NEXT FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS TWO SURGES OF COLD AIR EXPECTED. THE FIRST
TONIGHT AND ANOTHER STRONGER SURGE ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WILL FLIRT WITH SCEC/SCA LEVLS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE UPGRADED WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR NERN FL ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. NWLY WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND RHS FALLING INTO THE 25-30%
RANGE WILL MAKE FOR THE DRIEST DAY OF THE NEW YEAR. HAVE POSTED A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR NERN FL ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
NLY WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL DRY ENOUGH TO WARRANT
THE THREAT OF LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RHS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  33  62  31  56 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  41  63  36  54 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  37  63  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  44  64  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  37  64  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  40  64  32  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

PUBLIC...CARROLL
MARINE/FIRE WX/AVIATION...HESS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-091030-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
ST JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-
JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-
INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-
COASTAL CAMDEN-
215 PM EST MON JAN 8 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER
AIR FILTERING IN. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S...A FEW OF THE NORMALLY
COLDER POCKETS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL COLD
AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PREVENT A LONG DURATION WIDESPREAD
FREEZE. HOWEVER...MOST INLAND LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO JUST
BELOW FREEZING. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS IN CASE WATCHES OR WARNINGS NEED TO BE ISSUED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

DEESE/CARROLL