High Surf Advisory 8, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT PRESSING INTO THE REGION ALONG
WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE ALOFT PUSHING ACRS NERN FL WILL LEAD TO SCTD
SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-10.
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN AT LEAST ISOLD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACRS NERN FL THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS. NO FOG PROBLEMS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME
PATCHY 4-6SM VSBYS ACRS THE GNV-OCF VICINITY BEFORE THE WIND SURGE
REACHES THAT AREA AFTER SUNRISE...HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE GRIDS/ZFP FOR
NOW. SATURDAY...LOCAL NOREASTER CONDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION
AND HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE COAST AND LAKE
WIND ADVISORIES JUST INLAND TO COVER 20 TO 30 MPH NELY WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE I-95 CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. WILL
LEAVE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW AS HIGH TIDE CYCLE SAT
NIGHT WILL BE THE FIRST ONE IMPACTED WITH POSSIBLE MODERATE FLOODING
AND BEACH EROSION. SCTD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACRS NERN FL WILL
SLOWLY WIND DOWN IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY
NIGHT...MUCH OF THE COASTAL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END
DUE TO DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...BUT NELY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO CRANK AT 15 TO 25 MPH AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE KEPT UP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. BREAKERS WILL
LIKELY HIT 6 TO 8 FT SAT NIGHT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO
BE POSTED. HIGH TIDE CYCLE SHOULD FEATURE MINOR TO MODERATE EROSION
AND FLOODING.
SUNDAY...LOCAL NOREASTER WILL CONTINUE WITH NELY WINDS JUST AS
STRONG AS SAT AND WIND ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE RE-POSTED FOR THE
COAST AND JUST SOME ISOLD SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. BREAKERS
WILL CONTINUE HIGH IN THE 7 TO 9 FT RANGE WITH MINOR/MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING AND EROSION CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
VERY LONG-LIVED AND DANGEROUS LOCAL NOREASTER CONDS WILL REMAIN ALL
WEEK WITH MODELS TRYING TO DEVELOP WEAK SFC LOWS IN THE BAHAMAS
REGION TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AT RANDOM TIMES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE COAST
OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE...IN FACT
THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING ONLY 1 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE NEXT
8 DAYS FROM JACKSONVILLE TO OCALA AND POINTS SOUTHEAST INCLUDING ST
AUGUSTINE. WITH THE LONG FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LONG DURATION
OF THE EVENT...WATER WILL BEGIN TO PILE-UP IN THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN AND TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 2 FT WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE
WEEK ALONG WITH MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION AND FLOODING ALONG
THE COAST. BREAKERS AS HIGH AS 7 TO 10 FEET EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
REMAIN HIGH WITH HIGH SURF ADVISORIES CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NE BY
00Z. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFT 15Z ESP NEAR THE
COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15-20 GUSTING TO 25 KT
INLAND...AND 20-25 GUSTING TO 35 KT NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY READINGS CURRENTLY SHOWING 2 TO 3 FT SEAS WITH WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KT. NORTHEAST SURGE WILL BEGIN TONIGHT WITH SCA BEGINNING
LATE TONIGHT AND GOING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE ALONG WITH SEAS CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS
THIS WEEKEND.

SURF ZONE...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO TOMORROW AND THIS
WEEKEND CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT LOCAL BEACHES. A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE SEE THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH (MIACFWJAX) FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT. ON
SATURDAY RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BRIEFLY DROP TO NEAR 35% OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. DO NOT FEEL THAT DURATION WILL BE MET TO WARRANT A RFW AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER THE MIDSHIFT WILL REEVALUATE AS NEW GUIDANCE IS
AVAILABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  85  57  83 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  73  81  70  78 /  20  10  10  10
JAX  70  84  66  81 /  30  30  10  20
SGJ  73  84  71  82 /  30  40  10  20
GNV  68  86  65  84 /  30  30  10   0
OCF  69  87  67  86 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CLAY-
     PUTNAM.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING      FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR INLAND
     CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING      FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

HESS/HURLBUT/WALKER

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