Freeze Warning 2, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 AM EST THU JAN 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER POLAR VORTEX HAS SHIFTED E OVER E CANADA WITH TROF
EXTENDING SW TO UPPER LOW OVER NW MEXICO. THIS LOW HAS RETROGRADED
SLOWLY W SINCE LAST NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO S OF LARGE UPPER
HIGH OVER THE W 1/2 OF THE US. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SE GOMEX WITH LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAIN OVER THE NE GOMEX...N FLORIDA AND EXTREME S GA.

.SHORT TERM...MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT THAT UPPER TROF WILL PUSH
E TODAY AS UPPER LOW OVER N MEXICO CONTINUES TO CUT OFF AND
RETROGRADE W. THIS SHOULD SHUNT PRECIP AND CLOUD FIELD SE THRU THE
DAY. HAVE SEEN LITTLE SIGN THAT THIS IS BEGINNING AS YET..BUT MODELS
INDICATE THAT SHOULD BEGIN A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE MADE FEW
CHANGES TO EXISTING FCST.

GREATEST FCST CHALLENGE THEREAFTER WILL BE MIN TEMPS THE 2 NIGHTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE S MS VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH WINDS
NOT DECOUPLING UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...MIN TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP BELOW
FREEZING FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE INTERIOR. STILL LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL BE COLD ENUF TO UPGRADE OUR FREEZE WATCH TO A WARNING
TONIGHT. A FREEZE LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A SLAM DUNK FOR FRI NIGHT...
AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR MUCH OF INLAND NE FL.

.LONG TERM...HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO EXTENDED TEMPS. LAST 3 RUNS
OF MEX MOS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL APPEARS THAT NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON SUN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
GOMEX AND MOVES ACROSS N FL. ANOTHER FREEZE APPEARS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR TUE MORNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON BUT
UNTIL THEN EXPECT CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN OVER THE TERMINALS. CIGS
REMIN VFR AT ALL SITES AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. MIXING TOOLS INDICATE SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 20 MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE GEORGIA PORTION AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT TO INCREASE RADPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCA CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AFTER 18Z.
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z AND THEREFORE HAVE
ONE ADDITIONAL PACKAGE TO DETERMINE THE NEED FOR GALE WARNINGS. AT
THIS TIME WILL GO WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE DUE TO FAVORABLE
COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WATCH INHERITED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA BUT AFTER
LOADING IN LATEST DATA...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR LOW RH
AND WINDS COMBO ARE CONFINED TO ONLY 2 COUNTIES IN THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY...HAMILTON AND SUWANNEE. VERY BORDERLINE FOR EVEN THESE TWO
ZONES...BUT SINCE WE ONLY NEED ONE INSTANCE OF WINDS PLUS RH...FEEL
AND WARNING WILL BE THE WAY TO GO. FOR FRIDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR TO
WORK IN AND AFTER INCORPORATING MIXING INTO THE VALUES...DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TEENS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS LOOKS TO BE A RED FLAG EVENT ARE
WIDE AND CURRENT WATCH WILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  56  30  56  26 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  60  34  54  36 /  50   0   0   0
JAX  59  31  57  31 /  50   0   0   0
SGJ  59  38  57  38 /  60   0   0   0
GNV  58  31  59  30 /  60   0   0   0
OCF  59  32  60  33 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR      ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
HAMILTON-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM TO 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.

GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-
     ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-
     WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EST
FRIDAY      FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60
NM      OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60
NM      OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60
NM      OFFSHORE.

&&

CARROLL/DEESE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
104 PM EST WED JAN 24 2007

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-242300-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-CLAY-CLINCH-COFFEE-
COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-GLYNN (COASTAL)-
GLYNN (INLAND)-HAMILTON-JEFF DAVIS-MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
104 PM EST WED JAN 24 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW FREEZING BEFORE SUNRISE ON FRIDAY...FOR DURATIONS AROUND 2
HOURS. A LIGHT FREEZE IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS SATURDAY
MORNING.

DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

SANDRIK