Freeze Warning 13, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
255 PM EST WED NOV 7 2007

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE
AND EXTENDING BACK THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. DRY AIR IS BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS...WITH A SLIGHT ONSHORE...MAINLY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST...FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH LEADING
TO SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW POINTS. MODELS AND THE 12Z KJAX SOUNDING
INDICATE SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
900 MB OR 3000 TO 3500 FEET. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES IS SOMEWHAT LIMITING OUR MIXING HEIGHTS...WHICH IN
TURN IS PREVENTING DEW POINTS FROM COMPLETELY LOWERING TO EXPECTED
CRITICALLY DRY LEVELS. DESPITE THIS...HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR A
FEW GUSTY WINDS TO MIX DOWN FROM THESE LOWEST LEVELS LEADING TO
BORDERLINE LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA JUST ALONG THE COAST.
HOWEVER...FEEL THAT OVERALL THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW
THIS CRITERIA...WITH ONLY BRIEF MOMENTS OF WINDS 20 MPH GUSTING TO
30 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...DECOUPLING AND COOL DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE COLDEST LOCATIONS WILL BE
INLAND...ESPECIALLY INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE DRYING AND
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER LAND HAS LED TO THE GREATEST COOLING.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING IN A FEW NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS. DO NOT EXPECT THESE TEMPERATURES TO MEET THE DURATION
TO REQUIRE A FREEZE WARNING. DID ADD PATCHY FROST FOR COLD
LOCATIONS WITH ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE DECOUPLING
WILL BE GREATEST.

FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. DESPITE A SMALL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...IN LOOKING AT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HEMISPHERE THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
CHANGE IS COMING FOR THE EXTENDED. SEVERAL TROUGHS AND SHORT WAVES
ARE APPROACHING THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE
DOMINANT RIDGING PATTERN IN THE SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW...CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN DRY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DAYTIME HIGHS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THESE SHORT WAVES APPROACHING THE
WESTERN CONUS ATTM WILL BE DOMINANT FOR NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
CONUS. GFS/ECM/DGEX ARE HINTING AT A GULF LOW THAT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA BY MID WEEK. GIVEN MODEL DISCREPANCY DO NOT WANT
TO SPECULATE ON EXACT TIMING OR IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IF MODELS ARE
CORRECT THEN ACTIVE WEATHER IS IN STORE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 06Z...WITH
CEILINGS SLOWLY LOWERING TO AROUND 3000 FT (MVFR CONDITIONS)
AFTERWARDS. THIS IN IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE ADVECTING OFF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...OVER-RIDING A LAYER OF COOLER AND DRIER LAYER
UNDERNEATH. THUS...HAVE BEEN WHOLESALE CHANGES TO THE TAFS. SITE GNV
WILL BE LAST TO EXPERIENCE THESE CEILINGS.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO RELAX FROM THE NORTH...WITH
BUOY 41008 INDICATING SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS. THUS...WILL DOWNGRADE SCA TO SCEC FOR GEORGIA NEARSHORE
LEG WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE...WITH OTHER LEGS CONTINUING SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY (WITH COMBINED WINDS/SEAS
CRITERIA FOR 1 ADDITIONAL PERIOD...THEN BASED UPON SEAS). FLORIDA
OFFSHORE LEGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SCA GUIDELINES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS HAVE SLOWLY CREPT DOWN...HOWEVER A LARGE
PORTION OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL NEED MEET DURATION CRITERIA.
THUS...WILL DROP SEVERAL NE FLORIDA COUNTIES FROM THE WARNING.
THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE FIRE WX WATCH FOR SE GA FOR THURSDAY DUE TO
MARGINAL CONDITIONS...WITH RED FLAG WARNING FOR MAINLY SUWANNEE
VALLEY REGION OF NE FL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  33  64  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  47  63  47  68 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  40  66  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  48  66  49  69 /   0  10  10   0
GNV  38  68  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  40  69  43  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BAKER-
     COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-SUWANNEE.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR BAKER-
     COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE.

GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

HURLBUT/ZAPPE/KERNS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>