Coastal Flood Statement 6, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...1025+ MB SURFACE HIGH IS POSITIONED OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES...AND A WEAK UPPER LOW EXTENDING FROM EXTREME EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS CENTRAL AN SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. MEAN LAYER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ESTABLISH OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING...AS CURRENT RADAR TRENDS REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE...
A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...WITH
SUBSEQUENT DECREASE OF PRESSURE GRADIENT. THUS...WILL CAP WINDS
AT 15 MPH (BREEZY WORDING). A WEAKENING ONSHORE GRADIENT WILL ALSO
INCREASE NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING FOG COVERAGE. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS SMOKE PLUMES TO THE WEST...POSSIBLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK NORTHERLY DRAINAGE
FLOW.

.LONG TERM (TUE THRU FRI)...MEAN LAYER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS ON TUESDAY...RESULTING IN DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS JAX CWA. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY
POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW
LIKELY BRINGING SCATTERED CLOUDS. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES AS MEAN LAYER RIDGE
BEGINS TO LOSE GRIP OVER THE LOCAL AREA...WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
INTERACTING WITH SEA-BREEZE INTRUSION TO FOCUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW PROVIDES INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY... AND THESE FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH
SEA-BREEZE EFFECTS AND APPROACH OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...BEGINNING TO SEE QUITE A GRADIENT ALONG THE COASTAL LAND
INTERFACE WITH 10 MPH WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEAR CALM
CONDITIONS JUST INLAND. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME MVFR REDUCTIONS TO
VSBY AT A FEW OF THE TAF SITES AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTIFUL MOISTURE UP TO 850 MB
WITH SIGNIFICANT DRYING ABOVE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY SPREADING INLAND BY
16Z. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY
SCT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
SEABREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...7 FT SEAS REMAIN AT BUOY 41012 AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE . WILL HOLD ONTO SCA FOR THE ENTIRE SPAN
OF THE WATERS FOR THE INITIAL PERIOD AND DROP THE NEARSHORE
PORTION BY 00Z TONIGHT. EASTERLIES WILL REMAIN WITH US FOR THE
NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS BUT MORE MODEST THAN IN RECENT DAYS WITH 10 TO
15 KNOTS GENERALLY IN STORE. SEAS WILL COME DOWN TO BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS BUT WILL NOT FALL BELOW 6 FT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE DUE
TO PERSISTENT SWELL ACTION. ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TODAY...STILL FEEL THAT WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND PERSISTENT
SWELLS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS WARRANTED FOR THE FLORIDA
PORTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS...TODAY
WILL BE A VERY CLOSE CALL. AFTER LOOKING AT THE DISPERSION VALUES
WHICH WILL BE NEAR 75 TODAY...WILL HOIST A RED FLAG FOR AREAS WEST
OF INTERSTATE 75 WHERE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 35%. VALUES REMAIN
FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WITH LESS IN THE
WAY OF WIND AND THUS NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  59  87  61 /  10  10  10   0
SSI  80  67  79  70 /  20  20  10  10
JAX  82  61  84  62 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  79  67  81  69 /  20  20  10  10
GNV  85  61  86  62 /  10   0  10  10
OCF  85  61  87  63 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ALACHUA-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

ZAPPE/DEESE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

FLZ020>023-GAZ149-150-162>164-270000-
ATKINSON-BAKER-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COLUMBIA-ECHOLS-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-
WARE-
300 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2007

...HEAVY SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE SMOKE TO THE WEST OF THE
ONGOING WILDFIRES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH
THE LARGEST WILDFIRES CONTINUING IN CENTRAL WARE...WESTERN CHARLTON
AND EASTERN CLINCH COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE MAIN IMPACTED
AREAS CONTINUE FROM THE FARGO AREA IN SOUTHERN CLINCH COUNTY
EXTENDING NORTH ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 441 THROUGH HOMERVILLE. THE SMOKE
WILL ALSO IMPACT STRETCHES OF U.S. HIGHWAY 84...HIGHWAY 129...
INTERSTATE 75 AND SOME SECONDARY ROADS IN SOUTH GEORGIA. ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10
FROM NEAR LAKE CITY AND WESTWARD MAY EXPERIENCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OF LESS THAN 2 MILES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE
SMOKE ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR JENNINGS TO JASPER...STATENVILLE...AND
HOMERVILLE.

THICK SMOKE MAY NECESSITATE TEMPORARY ROAD CLOSURES. PEOPLE WITH
RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS AND THE ELDERLY SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS IN THOSE
AREAS WITH THICK SMOKE. MOTORISTS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AND LOW-
BEAM HEADLIGHTS WHEN DRIVING THROUGH THE SMOKE.

ECZ